[Propagation+Space Weather] Today's Space Weather Forecast Discussion on 2023 Feb 13 1230 UTC

[nw7us@sunspotwatch.com]

This e-mail posting is from the Radio Propagation Reflector that you're 
currently subscribed to.  Refer to the end of this e-mail for directions on how 
to change your subscription options, or to unsubscribe.
_______________________-start-_________________

Here is the current forecast discussion on space weather and geophysical activity, issued 2023 Feb 13 1230 UTC.

Solar Activity

24 hr Summary: Solar activity was at moderate levels. M1 flares were produced by Regions 3222 (N30, L=251), 3217 (S12E15, Dhi/beta), and newly numbered 3226 (N10E41, Cao/beta). Slight decay and magnetic simplification was observed in Region 3217. Moderate decay was observed in Region 3213 (N30W70, Fki/beta-gamma) as it approached the W limb. Region 3214 (N12W53, Eko/beta) continued to grow and show consolidation in its trailing spots. Slight to moderate growth was observed in Region 3226. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed in available coronagraph imagery.

Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be moderate to high (R1-R2, Minor-Moderate) with a slight chance of isolated X-class flares (R3 Strong or greater) on 13-14 Feb. R1-R2 events remain likely on on 15 Feb, with a slight chance for R3 as some complex regions rotate off of the visible disk.

Energetic Particle

24 hr Summary: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux reached high levels, with a peak flux of 1,210 pfu at 12/1840 UTC. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux remained at background levels.

Forecast: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is likely to range from moderate to high levels levels over 13-15 Feb. There is a slight chance for the greater than 10 MeV proton flux to reach S1 (Minor) levels on 13-15 Feb, due to the flare potential of multiple complex regions on the visible disk.

Solar Wind

24 hr Summary: Solar wind parameters decrease to nominal levels. Solar wind speed declined from approximately 475 km/s to near 360 km/s. Total field ranged from 1-4 nT while the Bz component was between +1/-3 nT. Phi angle switched from negative to positive at 12/2345 UTC.

Forecast: Solar wind conditions are likely to remain near background levels on 13 Feb. On 14-15 Feb, several enhancements in the IMF are possible due to multiple CMEs passing in close proximity to Earth from events that took place on the Sun over 10-11 Feb.

Geospace

24 hr Summary: The geomagnetic field was quiet.

Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be mostly quiet on 13 Feb. Unsettled to active conditions are likely on 14-15 Feb due to possible interaction with the periphery of multiple CMEs that left the Sun over 10-11 Feb.

Don't forget to visit our live space weather and radio propagation web site, at: http://SunSpotWatch.com/

Live Aurora mapping is at http://aurora.sunspotwatch.com/

If you are on Twitter, please follow these two users: + https://Twitter.com/NW7US + https://Twitter.com/hfradiospacewx

- - - - - - - - - - - - - Be sure to subscribe to our space weather and propagation email group, on Groups.io https://groups.io/g/propagation-and-space-weather Spread the word! - - - - - - - - - - - - - Links of interest: + Amazon space weather books: http://g.nw7us.us/fbssw-aSWSC + https://Twitter.com/NW7US + https://Twitter.com/hfradiospacewx Space Weather and Ham Radio YouTube Channel News: I am working on launching a YouTube channel overhaul, that includes series of videos about space weather, radio signal propagation, and more. Additionally, I am working on improving the educational efforts via the email, Facebook, YouTube, Tumblr, and other activities. You can help! Please consider becoming a Patron of these space weather and radio communications services, beginning with the YouTube channel: https://www.patreon.com/NW7US The YouTube channel: https://YouTube.com/NW7US ..

We're on Facebook: http://NW7US.us/swhfr

Live data: SunSpotWatch.com

_______________________________________________
Propagation mailing list
Propagation@contesting.com

To change your subscription settings, or to unsubscribe, visit:
http://lists.contesting.com/mailman/listinfo/propagation