[Propagation+Space Weather] Today's Space Weather Forecast Discussion on 2023 Feb 14 1230 UTC

[nw7us@sunspotwatch.com]

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Here is the current forecast discussion on space weather and geophysical activity, issued 2023 Feb 14 1230 UTC.

Solar Activity

24 hr Summary: Solar activity was at moderate levels. Region 3226 (N11E27, Dai/Beta-Gamma) produced an M1.4 flare at 13/1556 UTC and an M1.8/1N at 14/0203 UTC. This AR exhibited rather rapid growth over the course of the period, developing not only in over all size but also in penumbra growth and maturity on both its poles. Region 3213 (N28W84, Fao/Beta-Gamma) was the culprit behind the largest flare of the period, an M2.6 at 14/1212 UTC. Region 3214 (N11W66, Eko/Beta), while being one of the largest groups on the visible disk, was otherwise unremarkable. Region 3217 (S10E02, Dho/Beta) was stable and quiet. Regions 3227 (S03E36, Bxo/Beta) and 3228 (S25E08, Bxo/Beta) were numbered this period and quiet. The remaining ARs were either stable and relatively quiet, or in decay. A CME was observed in LASCO C2 imagery off the ENE limb, first visible near 14/0336 UTC. This event appears to have originated from a region just beyond the limb and does not have an Earth-directed component.

No Earth-directed CMEs were observed in available coronagraph imagery.

Forecast: Solar activity is likely to continue at moderate levels with isolated to occasional R1-2 (Minor-Moderate) radio blackouts due to M-class flare activity through 16 Feb. A slight chance for R3 (Strong) radio blackouts due to an isolated X-class flare exists through 15 Feb due to anticipated limb activity from Region 3213 and the continuing development exhibited by Region 3226.

Energetic Particle

24 hr Summary: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux reached high levels, with a peak flux of 5,450 pfu at 13/1725 UTC. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux remained at background levels.

Forecast: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is likely to range from moderate to high levels levels over 14 Feb, and then return to normal to moderate levels 15-16 Feb. There is a slight chance for the greater than 10 MeV proton flux to reach S1 (Minor) levels through 15 Feb primarily due to the flare potential and favorable location of Region 3213.

Solar Wind

24 hr Summary: Solar wind parameters, as measured by the DSCOVR spacecraft, were unavailable after 13/2327 UTC due to a network issue.

Forecast: On 14-15 Feb, several enhancements in the IMF are possible due to multiple CMEs passing in close proximity to Earth from events that took place on the Sun over 10-11 Feb. Any observed enhancements in the IMF are expected to wane over the course of 16 Feb.

Geospace

24 hr Summary: The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled.

Forecast: The geomagnetic field is likely to reach isolated active levels 14-15 Feb with any glancing effects from the CMEs that left the Sun on 10 and 11 Feb. Otherwise, quiet to isolated unsettled levels are expected through 16 Feb.

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