[Propagation+Space Weather] Today's Space Weather Forecast Discussion on 2023 Feb 15 1230 UTC

[nw7us@sunspotwatch.com]

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Here is the current forecast discussion on space weather and geophysical activity, issued 2023 Feb 15 1230 UTC.

Solar Activity

24 hr Summary: Solar activity was at moderate levels. Region 3213 (N28, L=225) rotated beyond the western limb and was responsible for most of the activity this period, including the largest flare of the period - an M2.6 flare at 14/1212 UTC. Region 3226 (N10E14, Dki/beta-gamma) continued to mature this period while maintaining a gamma configuration in its intermediate spots. Region 3214 (N11W80, Eho/beta) continued to its journey to the western limb, and was the culprit of C-class flare activity. Region 3225 (S20W27, Cri/beta) exhibited some minor growth, developing a few trailing spots, but was otherwise unremarkable. The remaining nine other ARs were either stable or exhibiting decay.

A partial halo CME was observed in C2 imagery beginning near 15/0200 UTC. This appears to be associated with a filament eruption near Region 3220 and an area of dimming in the area north of the region that can be seen in SDO/AIA 193 imagery. Initial analysis suggests the ejecta is very likely to impact Earth. Additional modeling is ongoing to determine the timing of arrival.

Forecast: Solar activity is likely to continue at moderate levels with isolated to occasional R1-2 (Minor-Moderate) radio blackouts due to M-class flare activity through 15 Feb. A slight chance for an isolated R3 (Strong) radio blackout due to an X-class flare will also persist through 15 Feb until Region 3213 completely rotates to behind the western limb. Probabilities for an event diminish slightly to just a chance for isolated R1-2 (Minor-Moderate) radio blackouts due to M-class flare activity for 16-17 Feb.

Energetic Particle

24 hr Summary: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux reached high levels, with a peak flux of 1,390 pfu at 14/0130 UTC. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux remained at background levels.

Forecast: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is likely to range from moderate to high levels levels over 15 Feb, and then return to normal to moderate levels 16-17 Feb. There is a slight chance for the greater than 10 MeV proton flux to reach S1 (Minor) levels on 15 Feb primarily due to the flare potential and favorable location of Region 3213. 10 MeV background levels are expected for 16-17 Feb.

Solar Wind

24 hr Summary: Solar wind parameters, as measured by the DSCOVR spacecraft, were reflective of slow moving CME influence. Total field strength was elevated through the period and reached 13 nT. Bz was oriented south and underwent prolonged sustained periods near -10 nT. Solar wind speeds hovered near 350 km/s. Phi was predominantly positive.

Forecast: Continued enhancements in the IMF are expected on 15 Feb with ongoing CME influence. A mostly ambient-like state is expected on 16-17 Feb.

Geospace

24 hr Summary: The geomagnetic field reached G1 (Minor) storm levels due to CME influence.

Forecast: The geomagnetic field is likely to reach isolated active to G1 levels on 15 Feb with effects from the aforementioned CME that likely left the Sun on 11 Feb. Mostly quiet conditions with the chance for unsettled periods are expected on 16-17 Feb.

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