[Propagation+Space Weather] Today's Space Weather Forecast Discussion on 2023 Feb 18 1230 UTC

[nw7us@sunspotwatch.com]

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Here is the current forecast discussion on space weather and geophysical activity, issued 2023 Feb 18 1230 UTC.

Solar Activity

24 hr Summary: Solar activity reached high levels. Region 3229 (N26E52, Dko/beta) produced the strongest flare of the period, an X2.2/2b flare (R3 - Strong) at 17/2016 UTC. Associated with the event was a Type II radio sweep (est. 2,407 km/s) and a Tenflare (550 sfu). An associated asymmetric halo CME was observed in SOHO/LASCO C2 imagery beginning at 17/2012 UTC. The bulk of the ejecta appears off to the NE, however an Earth-directed component is likely. Preliminary modelling of the event showed a glancing blow mid to late on 19 Feb. Further analysis is pending.

Another CME was observed off the SE limb at 18/0306 UTC in coronagraph imagery. EUV 195 imagery appeared to show the liftoff just beyond the SE limb. This event is not expected to be geoeffective.

Slight decay occurred in the trailing spots of Region 3226 (N10W26, Dki/beta). Slight growth was observed in Regions 3229 and 3225 (S21W64, Cao/beta). New Region 3230 (S23E78, Hsx/alpha) was numbered.

Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with a chance for M-class flares (R1-R2, Minor-Moderate) and a slight chance for X-class (R3-Strong) flares on 18-20 Feb.

Energetic Particle

24 hr Summary: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was at normal to moderate levels and the greater than 10 MeV proton flux remained at background levels.

Forecast: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to remain at normal to moderate levels through 20 Feb. There is a chance for a greater than 10 MeV proton event (above S1-Minor) on 18-19 Feb and a slight chance on 20 Feb due to a possible solar radiation storm triggered by the X2 flare.

Solar Wind

24 hr Summary: Solar wind parameters, as measured by the DSCOVR spacecraft, reflected enhanced but waning conditions. Solar wind speed decreased from approximately 490 km/s to near 435 km/s. Total field ranged from 3-5 nT while the Bz component was between +/-4 nT. Phi angle was positive.

Forecast: Late on 18 Feb, an enhancement in the IMF is likely due to the anticipated onset of a CME that left the Sun on 15 Feb. Additional enhancements from other CMEs that left the Sun on 16 and 17 Feb is likely on 19 Feb.

Geospace

24 hr Summary: The geomagnetic field was quiet.

Forecast: Late on 18 Feb, G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storming is likely with the arrival of a CME that left the Sun on 15 Feb. Active to G1 (Minor) storm periods are likely to continue on 19 Feb followed by unsettled to active levels on 20 Feb due to combined effects from the 16 and 17 Feb CMEs.

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