[Propagation+Space Weather] Today's Space Weather Forecast Discussion on 2023 Feb 19 1230 UTC

[nw7us@sunspotwatch.com]

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Here is the current forecast discussion on space weather and geophysical activity, issued 2023 Feb 19 1230 UTC.

Solar Activity

24 hr Summary: Solar activity was at low levels. Region 3226 (N10W40, Dko/beta) was responsible for multiple C-class flares including C7 flares at 18/1200 UTC and 18/1836 UTC, as well as a C6 flare at 19/0817 UTC. Region 3226 continued to exhibit decay, whereas slight growth was observed in Regions 3225 (S21W78, Dao/beta) and 3229 (N26E39, Dki/beta-delta).

Other activity included CMEs off the SW limb. The first was a slow moving CME observed in SOHO/LASCO C2 imagery beginning at 18/2124 UTC possibly associated with active region 3225. Preliminary modelling indicated a miss. The second began at 19/0848 UTC likely associated with activity near Region 3226 around 19/0806 UTC. Modelling of this CME is pending.

Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with a chance for M-class flares (R1-R2, Minor-Moderate) and a slight chance for X-class (R3-Strong) flares on 19-21 Feb.

Energetic Particle

24 hr Summary: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was at normal to moderate levels and the greater than 10 MeV proton flux remained at background levels.

Forecast: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to remain at normal to moderate levels through 21 Feb. There is a chance for a greater than 10 MeV proton event (above S1-Minor) on 19 Feb and a slight chance on 20-21 Feb due to a possible relativistic proton flux enhancements from Region 3229.

Solar Wind

24 hr Summary: Solar wind speed decreased from approximately 450 km/s to near 350 km/s. Total field ranged from 2-5 nT while the Bz component was between +/-5 nT. Phi angle was predominantly positive.

Forecast: Solar wind enhancements are possible late on 19 Feb and more likely on 20 Feb in response to the arrival of a CME that left the Sun 17 Feb. Waning CME conditions are expected over 21 Feb. Arrival times from modeling varied from late on 19 Feb to just after midday on 20 Feb.

Geospace

24 hr Summary: The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled.

Forecast: Active conditions are possible late on 19 Feb and more likely to increase to G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storm levels, with a chance of G2 (Moderate), on 20 Feb due to the anticipated arrival of a CME that left the Sun on 17 Feb. Active conditions are again likely on 21 Feb as CME influence wanes.

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