[Propagation+Space Weather] Today's Space Weather Forecast Discussion on 2023 Feb 24 1230 UTC

[nw7us@sunspotwatch.com]

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Here is the current forecast discussion on space weather and geophysical activity, issued 2023 Feb 24 1230 UTC.

Solar Activity

24 hr Summary: Solar activity was at low levels. Background flux slowly decreased through the period but remains in C-class. Region 3234 (N25E27, Ekc/beta-delta) remained the most magnetically complex group on the disk and produced the largest flare of the period, a C8.9 at 23/1819 UTC. Region 3230 (S22W01, Cso/beta) contributed a C8.6 at 24/0612 UTC. Region 3236 (S28E13, Cro/beta) continued to exhibit growth in spots and areal coverage. Region 3229 (N25W24, Eso/beta) continued to decay and was inactive. No significant CMEs were observed in coronagraph imagery.

Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be at moderate levels with isolated M-class flares likely, and a slight chance for an X-class flare through 26 Feb-primarily due to the flare potential of Region 3234.

Energetic Particle

24 hr Summary: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was normal to moderate. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux maintained background values.

Forecast: High levels of the 2 MeV or greater electron flux are likely to be reached 24-26 Feb due to CH HSS influences. A slight chance exists for a greater than 10 MeV proton event on 24-26 Feb mainly due to the potential of Region 3234.

Solar Wind

24 hr Summary: Solar wind parameters were indicative of positive polarity CH HSS influences. Total field strength peaked at 10 nT early then settled at 5-7 nT later in the period. The Bz component varied throughout the period, with some prolonged periods of southward orientation. Solar wind speed peaked near 590 km/s, then decreased to late speeds near 470 km/s. The phi angle was positive early, but deflected into a negative sector at ~23/2300 UTC.

Forecast: The solar wind field is anticipated to be under weak CH HSS influences over 24-26 Feb with the southern CH HSS in geoeffective position.

Geospace

24 hr Summary: Quiet to active levels were observed with continued CH HSS influences.

Forecast: Varying CH HSS effects are expected to result in primarily quiet to unsettled conditions, with isolated periods of active levels possible on 24-26 Feb.

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Live data: SunSpotWatch.com

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