[Propagation+Space Weather] Today's Space Weather Forecast Discussion on 2023 Feb 25 1230 UTC

[nw7us@sunspotwatch.com]

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Here is the current forecast discussion on space weather and geophysical activity, issued 2023 Feb 25 1230 UTC.

Solar Activity

24 hr Summary: Solar activity was at moderate levels. Region 3229 (N25W39, Eso/beta) produced the largest event of the period, an M3.7/2b flare (R1-Minor) at 24/2030 UTC. This M3.7/2b flare was associated with a Type II radio sweep (1204 km/s), a Type IV radio sweep and a Tenflare (229 sfu). There was also a DSF observed lifting off of the disk at 24/1949 UTC, located near N19W34, that was in conjunction with this event. Region 3235 (N19W13, Dao/beta) produced an M1 flare (R1-Minor) at 24/1715 UTC. Region 3235 showed signs of slight decay in its leader and separation in its trailer. Regions 3230 (S22W15, Cso/beta), 3234 (N25E12, Ekc/beta-delta and 3236 (S28W02, Dai/beta) produced C-class flaring. Region 3236 increased in areal coverage and extent. Newly numbered Region 3237 (S12E16, Bxo/beta) was unremarkable.

A partial-halo CME associated with the M3.7/2b flare from Region 3229 was first observed in LASCO C2 imagery at 24/2036 UTC. Analysis of this event is ongoing to determine if there is an Earth-directed component. An additional CME signature was observed in C2 imagery at 24/1325 UTC but is believed to be a far-sided event.

Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be at moderate levels with M-class flares likely, and a slight chance for an X-class event throughout the forecast period (25-27 Feb).

Energetic Particles

24 hr Summary: The greater than 10 MeV proton flux became slightly enhanced following the M3.7 flare from Region 3229. Flux increased to a maximum of 3.5 pfu at 25/0010 UTC. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was at normal to moderate levels.

Forecast: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is likely to reach high levels on 25-27 Feb due to recent CH HSS influences. There is a slight chance for a 10 MeV proton flux event due to the recent M-class flare activity.

Solar Wind

24 hr Summary: Solar wind parameters were indicative of persistent, positive-polarity CH HSS influence. Solar wind reached 619 km/s, then decreased to speeds near 400 km/s to end the period. Total field strength peaked at 8 nT early, then settled to 5 nT later in the period. The Bz component dropped to a low of -5 nT but was predominately positive. Phi angle was variable early in the period, but steadied to a mostly positive angle after about 24/1800 UTC.

Forecast: The solar wind environment is anticipated to be under CH HSS influence on 25-27 Feb.

Geospace

24 hr Summary: The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels under weak CH HSS influence.

Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels, with isolated active conditions on 25-27 Feb due to recurrent CH HSS influence.

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