[Propagation+Space Weather] Today's Space Weather Forecast Discussion on 2023 Feb 26 1230 UTC

[nw7us@sunspotwatch.com]

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Here is the current forecast discussion on space weather and geophysical activity, issued 2023 Feb 26 1230 UTC.

Solar Activity

24 hr Summary: Solar activity was at high levels. Region 3229 (N25W53, Eso/beta) produced the largest event of the period, an M6.3/3n flare (R2-Moderate) at 25/1944 UTC. This M6.3/3n flare was associated with a Type II radio sweep (528 km/s) and a Tenflare (500 sfu). Region 3236 (S28W16, Dai/beta) produced an M1.0 flare at 25/1540 UTC. Region 3234 (N25W02, Ekc/beta-delta) produced a C2.1 flare at 25/0309 UTC. The remaining three numbered sunspot groups were absent of significant flare activity. The partial-halo CME associated with the M3.7/2b flare from Region 3229 mentioned in the previous discussion product was determined to have an Earth-directed component. Enlil model analysis suggests an arrival time late on 26 Feb. An asymmetric halo CME, associated with the M6 flare at 25/1944 UTC, is visible in coronagraph imagery. Initial analysis and model output suggests this CME to have an Earth-directed component as well. Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be moderate with a slight chance for an X-class flare on 26-28 Feb.

Energetic Particles

24 hr Summary: A greater than 10 MeV proton event was observed starting at 25/2110 UTC following the M6.3 flare from Region 3229. Flux increased to a maximum of 58.8 pfu at 26/0440 UTC. The greater than 100 MeV protons remained at background levels. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was at normal to moderate levels.

Forecast: The greater than 10 MeV proton event is expected to continue through 26 Feb and into 27 Feb. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is likely to reach high levels on 26 Feb due to recent CH HSS influence. Electron flux values are anticipated to decrease after the arrival of the forecasted 24 Feb CME.

Solar Wind

24 hr Summary: Solar wind parameters were indicative of weak CH HSS influence with possible CIR influence from the anticipated negative polarity CH HSS. Solar wind reached 515 km/s after 26/0800 UTC. Total field strength peaked at 11 nT. The Bz component dropped to a low of -8 nT. Phi angle was predominately positive before changing to a negative orientation after 26/0700 UTC.

Forecast: The solar wind environment is expected to be enhanced due to the anticipated arrival of the 24 Feb and 25 Feb CME and negative-polarity CH HSS influence on 26-28 Feb.

Geospace

24 hr Summary: The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels under weak CH HSS/CIR influence.

Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to minor storm levels late on day one (26 Feb), unsettled to major storm levels on day two (27 Feb) and unsettled to minor storm levels on day three (28 Feb). Combined negative-polarity CH HSS and influence from the 24 and 25 Feb CMEs are expected to persist throughout the forecast period.

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