[Propagation+Space Weather] Today's Space Weather Forecast Discussion on 2023 Feb 27 1230 UTC

[nw7us@sunspotwatch.com]

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Here is the current forecast discussion on space weather and geophysical activity, issued 2023 Feb 27 1230 UTC.

Solar Activity

24 hr Summary: Solar activity was at low levels. Low-level C-class activity was observed from Region 3234 (N25W16, Fkc/beta-delta). The region showed some overall area growth, particularly in the leader spot area. Regions 3229 (N25W67, Dso/beta), 3230 (S22W43, Cro/beta), 3235 (N19W41, Bxo/beta) and 3237 (S12W12, Axx/alpha) all indicated overall decay in area and spot count. New Region 3238 (N08E67, Hsx/alpha) was numbered this period.

No new CMEs were observed in available coronagraph imagery. Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be moderate (R1/R2-Minor/Moderate) with a slight chance for an X-class flare (R3-Strong) on 27-29 Feb.

Energetic Particle

24 hr Summary: A greater than 10 MeV proton event started at 25/2110 UTC following the M6.3 flare from Region 3229. Flux increased to a maximum of 58.8 pfu at 26/0440 UTC. The event ended at 26/2320 UTC. The greater than 100 MeV protons remained at background levels. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was at normal to moderate levels.

Forecast: There is a slight chance for the greater than 10 MeV proton levels to exceed threshold on 27 Feb and on 28 Feb. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to be at normal to moderate levels on 27-28 Feb due to redistribution from increased solar wind pressure. High electron flux values are likely on 01 Mar in response to influence from a recurrent, negative-polarity CH HSS and combined effects of the 24 and 25 Feb CMEs.

Solar Wind

24 hr Summary: Solar wind parameters indicated the arrival of a negative polarity CH HSS following the CIR interaction at about 27/0700 UTC. Wind speed increased from 450 km/s to near 515 km/s after the CIR interaction. An additional enhancement was observed at 26/1845 UTC with the arrival of an interplanetary shock at the DSCOVR spacecraft. Density values increased to 34 ppcm, wind speed exceeded 700 km/s and temperature measurements showed increased values. Phi angle measurements were in a mostly negative orientation. Total field rose to 21 nT while Bz dropped as low as -18 nT. A corresponding sudden impulse was observed at the GOES-16 spacecraft and at magnetometer sites around the globe. The Fredericksburg Magnetic Observatory, in Virginia, measured the sudden impulse at 34 nT beginning at 26/1925 UTC.

Forecast: The solar wind environment is expected to be enhanced throughout the forecast period due to the arrival of the aforementioned negative polarity CH HSS and the 24 Feb CME. An additional enhancement is forecasted for late on 27 Feb with the forecasted arrival of the 25 Feb CME.

Geospace

24 hr Summary: The geomagnetic field reached G2 (Moderate) storm levels at 26/2240 UTC and G3 (Strong) levels at 27/0800 UTC and 27/1115 UTC due to the combined influence from a negative polarity CH HSS and the 24 Feb CME.

Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at active to severe storm levels (G3-Strong) on day one (27 Feb), unsettled to major storm levels (G2-Moderate) on day two (28 Feb) and unsettled to active levels on day three (01 Mar). Combined influence of the recurrent negative polarity CH HSS and effects from the 24 and 25 Feb CMEs is the source for these enhanced geomagnetic conditions.

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