[Propagation+Space Weather] Today's Space Weather Forecast Discussion on 2023 Feb 28 1230 UTC

[nw7us@sunspotwatch.com]

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Here is the current forecast discussion on space weather and geophysical activity, issued 2023 Feb 28 1230 UTC.

Solar Activity

24 hr Summary: Solar activity was low, with solar X-ray flux at C-class levels and seven sunspot groups present on the visible solar disk. Region 3234 (N25W22, Fkc/beta-gamma-delta) was the largest group present, maintained a mixed polarity in the eastern segment penumbra, and developed a few weak mixed polarity spots in the western segment. Despite the potential for flare activity from this complex region, it produced only a few C-class flares above background. Region 3236 (S27W32, Cso/beta) underwent growth during the first half of the reporting period, but growth stalled and decay was evident as the period progressed. Region 3229 (N26W74, Cso/beta) decayed further as it approached the limb. The remaining regions were little changed or underwent dissipation.

No new Earth-directed CMEs were observed in available coronagraph imagery.

Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with a chance for M-class flares (R1/R2: Minor-moderate radio blackouts) and a slight chance for an X-class flare (R3 - Strong radio blackout) on 28 Feb - 02 Mar.

Energetic Particle

24 hr Summary: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was normal to moderate and the greater than 10 MeV proton flux remained slightly elevated as it continued to decline during the current reporting period.

Forecast: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is likely to reach high levels 28 Feb - 02 Mar due to elevated solar wind field contributions. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to remain below S1 threshold. However, there is a slight chance of a new S1 event due primarily to the combined solar energetic proton event risk from Regions 3229, 3234, and 3236.

Solar Wind

24 hr Summary: CME passage continued during the period. Total IMF strength reached a peak of 21 nT at 27/1025 UTC and gradually and unsteadily declined afterwards to end of period values near 7-8 nT. The Bz component was pronounced and prolonged southward directed much of the first half of the reporting period, with a maximum deflection of -19 nT near 27/1030 UTC. Solar wind speed was elevated and reached speeds in excess of 850 km/s after 27/1230 UTC. Speed slowly declined after 27/1800 UTC, but remained over 700 km/s. The phi angle was predominantly negative, but did undergo some positive sector shifts later in the period.

Forecast: It is currently unclear and there is still some uncertainty, however, general consensus at this time is that both anticipated CMEs have arrived at Earth. Therefore, combined CME passage is likely to continue, but weaken on 28 Feb. Also, Earth is under the influence of a CH HSS and even as transient passage weakens, the solar wind field will likely remain disturbed. If the additional CME from 25 Feb is still transiting space, we would likely see an additional enhancement in the solar wind environment on 28 Feb, although other solar wind field indicators are not showing signs of another looming arrival at this time. 01 Mar is anticipated to see further weakening in the solar wind field as CME influences end and CH HSS effects weaken. A return towards a more ambient, background-like state is anticipated on 02 Mar.

Geospace

24 hr Summary: The geomagnetic field observed G1-G3 (Minor-Strong) storm conditions throughout the day, due to CME effects.

Forecast: G2 (Moderate) storm levels are expected early on 28 Feb due to continuing, but weakening CME effects. Primarily quiet to active levels are expected 01 Mar as CME influences end, but CH HSS effects continue. Mainly quiet to unsettled levels are expected 02 Mar as CH HSS effects wane.

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