K1KI wrote:
>Has anyone ever checked to see how well the NOAA forecasts track what really
>happens (i.e. are they more accurate than the TV weatherman?).
Tom and All,
I use the NOAA forecasts mostly for the A and K indices which
are based on the previous 27 day numbers. Flux follows the same cycle
but is more affected by unpredictable events such as new sunspots, etc.
In general I find they get the A and K direction changes but usually the
forecast is very overdamped...i.e. actual A and K will go both higher and
lower than they forecasted (maybe this is due to conservatism on their
part).
Since I am not super impressed with NOAA's accuracy for A and K,
I wonder if anyone would be willing to collect and post the following:
Post the previous 20 to 30 days worth of actual A and K reports (by day
only) from WWV. For example, for tomorrow's report, post actual WWV
numbers for February 14 to 24. I pulled the following from OH2BUA's WWV
report (http://www.clinet.fi/~jukka/wwv1000.html) using copy and paste.
Previous 27 day data from WWV... applies to:
March
14 Feb K3SKE (03) SFI= 95, A= 5, K= 0 13
15 Feb K3SKE (03) SFI=105, A= 3, K= 2 14
16 Feb K3SKE (03) SFI=107, A= 1, K= 0 15
17 Feb KA6ING (03) SFI=107, A= 0, K= 0 16
18 Feb W5UR (05) SFI=105, A= 8, K= 6 17
19 Feb K3SKE (03) SFI=103, A= 26, K= 1 18
20 Feb W4DUP (03) SFI= 99, A= 4, K= 4 19
21 Feb KA6ING (03) SFI= 96, A= 7, K= 1 20
22 Feb W4DUP (03) SFI= 95, A= 2, K= 1 21
23 Feb KA6ING (00) SFI= 96, A= 4, K= 1 22
24 Feb K3SKE (03) SFI= 99, A= 8, K= 1 23
This took me about 10 minutes but I don't have time to do
it each week. If someone does have the time, I would gladly drop the
NOAA forecasts which I don't feel are as useful as looking at the actual
data from prior 27 day WWV reports. If one were really interested,
they could post the prior 55 day reports as well. (Since the cycle
is actually 27.5 days, 55 days catches the previous cycle. Also
remember that the A index is actually reporting the prior day's
activity when interpreting the data).
73, Bill W4ZV
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