I had to do a memory refresh but finally recalled that Leif Svalgaard, et.al.
accurately predicted Cycle 24 in October 2004. He did not use conveyor
belt theory but polar field measurements:
"Using direct polar field measurements, now available for four solar
cycles, we predict that the approaching solar cycle 24 (2011 maximum) will
have a peak smoothed monthly sunspot number of 75 ± 8, making it
potentially the smallest cycle in the last 100 years."
http://www.leif.org/research/Cycle%2024%20Smallest%20100%20years.pdf
The actual smoothed sunspot peak for Cycle 24 was around 82 in early 2014
(blue line on the graph below). He missed the peak date because it
occurred during the cycle's second peak.
http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/solar-cycle-progression
73, Bill W4ZV
On Sat, Jul 11, 2015 at 4:40 PM, Bill Tippett <btippett@alum.mit.edu> wrote:
> Hi Frank,
>
> Please correct me if I'm wrong but I thought the conveyor belt theory was
> used to predict the weakness of the current cycle. Hathaway himself did
> not predict this weakness:
>
> "NASA's Hathaway, along with colleague Robert Wilson at a meeting of the
> American Geophysical Union in San Francisco last month, said that Solar
> Cycle 24 "looks like it's going to be one of the most intense cycles since
> record-keeping began almost 400 years ago."
>
> http://solarchaos.blogspot.com/2008/11/history-of-cycle-24-predictions.html
>
> 73, Bill W4ZV
>
> On Sat, Jul 11, 2015 at 4:21 PM, <donovanf@starpower.net> wrote:
>
>> After hundreds of years of scientific research of sunspot cycles, no long
>> range
>> solar cycle forecasting model has ever been able to reliably forecast
>> the
>> intensity of a solar cycle until after the cycle begins to rise.
>> Perhaps this will
>> be the first model to reliably forecast the intensity of future sunspot
>> cycle,
>> but no one knows.
>>
>> 73
>> Frank
>> W3LPL
>>
>>
>> ------------------------------
>> *From: *"Dave Blaschke, w5un" <w5un@wt.net>
>> *To: *"Bill Tippett" <btippett@alum.mit.edu>, "topband" <
>> topband@contesting.com>
>> *Sent: *Saturday, July 11, 2015 8:08:09 PM
>> *Subject: *Re: Topband: Maunder minimum solar cycle in 2030?
>>
>>
>> Bill,
>>
>> Interesting stuff, tends well for 160, but I'll be gone by then :>(
>>
>> Dave, W5UN
>> p.s. whatever happened to global warming
>>
>> On 7/11/2015 7:16 PM, Bill Tippett wrote:
>> >
>> http://www.dailymail.co.uk/sciencetech/article-3156594/Is-mini-ICE-AGE-way-Scientists-warn-sun-sleep-2020-cause-temperatures-plummet.html
>> > _________________
>> > Topband Reflector Archives - http://www.contesting.com/_topband
>> >
>>
>> _________________
>> Topband Reflector Archives - http://www.contesting.com/_topband
>>
>>
>
_________________
Topband Reflector Archives - http://www.contesting.com/_topband
|