Doug Renwick wrote:
> Subject: Re: [TowerTalk] Guying a tower....Heresy to follow..... True
> statement!
>
> Nope... real life experience is an anecdote, not engineering data. It
> predicts only the past for that one case. There's no way that anecdote
> trumps analysis, particularly if the analysis is based on test data in
> controlled circumstances.
>
> Comment - Experience trumps analysis because analysis can not accurately
> predict nature (i.e. hurricane or earthquake) or God.
>
Analysis can predict nature (or at least the behavior of the system
under natural forces), but that's not really at issue here.
More that experience, in the sense of anecodote (I did X and it stayed
up) provides a single data point, and doesn't necessarily predict the
behavior in any other case. The engineering analysis for towers doesn't
say "if you exceed the limit load by 0.001 pounds, instant destruction
results".. it says "as long as the load is less than the limit, it won't
fail".
An anecdote showing a case where the load was greater than the limit
without failure could have been because the material was stronger than
expected, the assembly was better than the assumption in the analysis, etc.
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