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[VHFcontesting] re. W3ZZ's QST contesting article (Tom Carney)

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Subject: [VHFcontesting] re. W3ZZ's QST contesting article (Tom Carney)
From: geoiii@kkn.net (George Fremin III)
Date: Thu Jun 19 16:44:38 2003
On Mon, Apr 07, 2003 at 07:18:00PM -0400, Eugene Zimmerman wrote:
> 
> But I think we are talking apples and oranges.  No one denies that prior to
> the mid 1990's the trendline was up. And even if there were a significant
> drop during the last 10 years of the last 25 it would likely be overwhelmed
> by the rise in the the first 15 years.

That might be true - in my quick glance at the numbers 
it would apper that the biggest gains were in the 1992-1995
time period for all three contests. 

I wonder why?


  But I wonder what would happen if
> you calculated a trend line from 1993 or 1996 to the present. That is the
> time period I am talking about when I say activity is down and logs are

It is clear that from about 1998 there has been a decline.

The years from 1993 to 1998 do not show a huge change - something
around 100 entries for each contest.


> down.  I also wonder what equation you are using for the trend line - least
> squares fit, regression line of some sort or what?

I dont have a clue - and I will admit it - just the trendline function
in excel - so it might be best to discount anything I have to say
on "trendlines".


> 
> Your smoothed sunspot numbers are NOT a mirror of decrease in VHF log
> submissions. Prior to the mid 90's the trendline was up regardless of
> smoothed sunspot number.  Likewise during the past ~10 years even when there
> has been superb conditions - big Es on 6 in June or a big tropo opening in
> September - log entries are generally down year over year.

What I am saying is that over the last two sunspot peaks we have
seen a decline in log submissions in the VHF contests. 

Am I not matching up the dip in log sumissions with the rise in SSN
to the correct years?

http://www.kkn.net/~k5tr/misc/vhfcharts/june-ssn.gif


> 
> So to look at your 6 meter data again using the 'official' ARRL numbers
> which I received prior to writing my April column

The numbers that I used were gathered by me by looking them up in
the June ARRL Contest reports as published in QST.  So I would consider 
them to be "official".

Indeed except for the 2001 number our two sets of numbers are quite close.
It appears that I have a typo in my 2001 numbers.

> 
>             TR         ARRL
>             #s            #s
> > 1995 837        837
> > 1996 921        923  This year is high because the E-skip was really
> really good.
> > 1997 837        837  Es very poor
> > 1998 800        865  This year the eskip and tropo were good
> > 1999 701        701  Eskip was REALLY bad
> > 2000 710        749  Eskip was better for some but overall bad. **Es was
> really good in the East**
> > 2001 880        680  Es was excellent.
>    2002  -            674  Es was good.
> 

For us here in Texas the Es have been very poor over the last three years.
But then poor might be slightly diffrent since I am used to making 
more than 1000 contacts on 6 meters these days.


> Note that really good Es years has little impact on the declining numbers.
> Thus 1999 which was the worst Es year in my memory in the last 20 had 701
> entries vs 865 in 1998,  749 in 2000 and only 680 in 2001 which was perhaps
> the second best Es year after 1996.

Yep - log sumissions ahve not been really off until 2001.

I still say sunspots might have something to do with it - solar 
conditons were pretty good on the HF bands in 2001.

> 
> Also note that between 50,000 and 100,000 HF/VHF/UHF radios have been sold
> since the mid 90's.  They did not exist before that time.  So where are the
> contacts from these radios?

I dont know - Are all of these radios on the HF bands?

Speaking of that - how do log submissions in other ARRL contests compaire to 
the VHF ones?

> If you look at September over the same period the results are even more
> distressing
> 
>    1995 695
> > 1996 717
> > 1997 753
> > 1998 610
> > 1999 606        Superb tropo in the Midwest
> > 2000 582
> > 2001 553        Best East coast tropo opening since 1979
>    2002 540
> 
> Regardless of conditions, the trendline is down from 1996 forward.

It was up in 1997 but yes you are correct.


> Peak entry years were 1994 for January, 1996 for June and 1997 for
> September.  Since then the trend has been downward. I think most telling is
> that the most populous contest - January - began declining before the
> sunspot minimum.

I am not sure I am following you here.

I think the sunspot minimum was in 1996. Jan 1997 would have also been near the 
bottom.
Theses are the two years when log submissions peaked for the January contest.


> Given that activity in January is driven by club activity,
> that is an ominous sign indeed.  Especially since I think club activity has
> been increasing - note that there are TWO big clubs in Texas now,

I am not sure what two clubs you are talking about but I do not know
of any contest clubs in Texas that are pushing contesting or submitting 
scores for the club compition in the ARRL VHF contests.

-- 
George Fremin III - K5TR
geoiii@kkn.net
http://www.kkn.net/~k5tr


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