FW: ALERT: Minor Geomagnetic Storm Alert - 23 Oct

[frenaye at pcnet.com]

Just this one storm stands between us and CQWW SSB.  GL!  73 Tom

--- On Tue, 22 Oct 1996 22:14:58 -0600 (MDT)  Cary Oler 
<oler at holly.cc.uleth.ca> wrote:
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                        MINOR GEOMAGNETIC STORM ALERT

                        ISSUED: 03:50 UT, 23 OCTOBER

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    HIGH RISK PERIOD:  23 Oct (UT days)
MODERATE RISK PERIOD:  23 - 25 Oct

POTENTIAL LOW-MIDDLE LATITUDE STORM INTENSITY:  STRONG MINOR
      POTENTIAL HIGH LATITUDE STORM INTENSITY:  MAJOR

      POTENTIAL DURATION OF GEOMAGNETIC STORM:  24 TO 36 HOURS

POTENTIAL PEAK LOW-MIDDLE LATITUDE K-INDEX VALUES:  6
      POTENTIAL PEAK HIGH LATITUDE K-INDEX VALUES:  7

  EXPECTED DOMINATING LOW-MIDDLE LATITUDE K-INDEX:  4 - 5
        EXPECTED DOMINATING HIGH LATITUDE K-INDEX:  5

   POTENTIAL FOR LOW LATITUDE HF DEGRADATION:  MODERATE
        POTENTIAL SEVERITY OF HF DEGRADATION:  MINOR
          EXPECTED HF PROPAGATION CONDITIONS:  MOSTLY GOOD TO OCCAS. FAIR

POTENTIAL FOR MIDDLE LATITUDE HF DEGRADATION:  HIGH
        POTENTIAL SEVERITY OF HF DEGRADATION:  STRONG MINOR
          EXPECTED HF PROPAGATION CONDITIONS:  FAIR TO POOR

  POTENTIAL FOR HIGH LATITUDE HF DEGRADATION:  HIGH
        POTENTIAL SEVERITY OF HF DEGRADATION:  MAJOR
          EXPECTED HF PROPAGATION CONDITIONS:  VERY POOR TO USELESS

POTENTIAL RISK FOR GEOSYNCHRONOUS MAGNETOPAUSE CROSSINGS:   5%

SUSPECTED SOURCE OF OBSERVED/EXPECTED ACTIVITY:
     A well placed solar coronal hole.


---------------------------------       ---------------------------------
EST. POTENTIAL GEOMAGNETIC IMPACT       EST. POTENTIAL IONOSPHERIC IMPACT
---------------------------------       ---------------------------------
       SEVERE STORM : 05 %                 LOW LATITUDES : MINOR
        MAJOR STORM : 40 %              MIDDLE LATITUDES : STRONG MINOR
        MINOR STORM : 45 %                HIGH LATITUDES : MAJOR
     ACTIVE OR LESS : 10 %               POLAR LATITUDES : MAJOR
---------------------------------       ---------------------------------
 PROBABLE SI ASSOCIATION : 0%           ESTIMATED GLOBAL IMPACT: MINOR-MAJOR

ESTIMATED FORECAST PEAK PLANETARY 24-HOUR A-INDEX DURING STORM: 40 - 50

COMMENTS:

     A strong burst of geomagnetic storming over the last six hours has
pushed middle latitude geomagnetic indices above the minor storm threshold 
at 03:00 UTC.  This activity is the result of a high-speed solar wind stream
pushing past the Earth from a well placed solar coronal hole.  It has not 
yet been confirmed whether a recent confirmed coronal mass ejection may be
contributing to the activity.

     Major to severe geomagnetic storming has been reported over many high
latitude regions.  Additional minor to severe storming is expected 
throughout the local night sectors over the next 24 to 36 hours.


**  End of Alert  **

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Tom Frenaye, K1KI, P O Box 386, West Suffield CT 06093 Phone: 860-668-5444