[CQ-Contest] Probability of getting bad calls

[CT1BOH - José Carlos cardoso Nunes]

Score penalties have been the same for as long as I remember.
If one logs a bad call, he will loose that call plus 3 more as penalty.

What has not been the same throughout the years is the probability of a bad
call being caught by the log-checking algorithm.

With more and more people submitting logs, the use of database countries and
other human intervention methods, the probability of getting a bad call is
closer and closer to 100%.

Our good N6AA dreams about the day, when every QSO can be double check.
;-)

With that in mind lets assume the probability of getting a bad call is
already 100% today

Error rate     Comment        Score penalty
2%              Best Ops         8% = (2%-3*2%)
3%              Excel Ops       12% = (3%-3*3%)
4%              Average Ops   16%
5%              Average -        24%
8%              Below Par       32%

And all this assuming all those QSOs are not multipliers, because if they
are, score penalties will sky rocket

If the penalty is there to hurt, it will hurt, and it will hurt more and
more each year, because each year the probability of getting those bad calls
is bigger and bigger.

Are we as competitors ready for this type of penalties?
Should we adapt the penalties to the probability of getting bad calls?

For the same performance each year, your score that year will be lower than
the year before until we get to that 100% probability.

73
José Carlos Nunes
CT1BOH


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