Fwd: Re: [CQ-Contest] Polling

[jmax at attglobal.net]

Jim -

The survey was adjusted to be representative of all
ARRL members, which consists of lots of contesters
and even more non-contesters.  If the survey were
biased in favor of contesters, of course then the
results would have shown wild enthusiasm for contest
line scores.  But the intent of the survey was not to bias
it in any direction.  It was intended to discover what
ARRL members, as a whole, prefer to have in their
magazines.  ARRL tries to serve the entire membership,
not just specialized groups.

73.  Jim, W6CF


Jim Rhodes wrote:

> I wonder if the survey groups that are polled tend to be from the higher
> density population areas. This alone would bias the survey against
> contesters. I would be very interested in how they choose the survey
> population. Living most of my life in the midwest I have gotten used to the
> fact that our opinions don't count as much as those from either coast
> .
> At 10:33 AM 2/13/02, you wrote:
>
> >Some excerpts from messages N4ZR and I exchanged last month...
> >
> > >At 10:00 AM 1/10/2002 -0500, N4ZR wrote:
> > >
> > >>It's worth remembering that a poll of a little over 1000 people is
> > >>considered statistically representative of the entire adult population of
> > >>the United States, within +/- 3 percentage points.  You can imagine how
> > >>small a sample would give comparable results for the ham population of
> > >>700,000 or so.  That makes it pretty likely that very few contesters are in
> > >>the sample for any given QST reader poll.
> > >
> > >
> > >The results of the last 3 ARRL Readex surveys have had error rates of
> > 3.6, 3.6 and 3.5 points.   And yes, out of 160K members, 6K contesters
> > won't be noticed much (4%).   Of those ARRL members on this reflector
> > (about 700?), the percentage is more like 0.4%.  So of roughly 800
> > surveys returned, only three might be from people on this reflector.
> > >                                -- Tom
> >
> >=====
> >e-mail: k1ki at arrl.org   ARRL New England Division
> >Director  http://www.arrl.org/
> >Tom Frenaye, K1KI, P O Box J, West Suffield CT 06093 Phone: 860-668-5444
> >
> >
> >--
> >CQ-Contest on WWW: http://lists.contesting.com/_cq-contest/
> >Administrative requests: cq-contest-REQUEST at contesting.com
>
> Jim Rhodes K0XU
> jim at rhodesend.net
>
> --
> CQ-Contest on WWW: http://lists.contesting.com/_cq-contest/
> Administrative requests: cq-contest-REQUEST at contesting.com


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