[CQ-Contest] Fishy spots followed

Tonno Vahk tonno.vahk at mail.ee
Fri Apr 11 13:41:05 EDT 2003

I pushed Send too fast in previous mail, the other probability is:

If the probability of a certain spot having one decimal point in a frequency
is 16% then the probability of having only 1 or 0 of those among 28 spots is
0.84 in the power of 27 times 0.16 times 28 plus 0.84 in the power of 28.
That is 4.8% actually not 1.5%. I am sorry, I must have miscalculated
something previously... It does not change anything much but good if
somebody noticed:)

Two other comments I wanted to make:

1. It's right that we cannot blame those stations that don't sumbit log to
contest committee. They can probably self-spot if they want. Although I
wonder if calling CQ Contest and making contest QSOs does not constitute by
any ways participation already... Maybe not, considering that there is no
way to disqualify them from anything then:)

2. The benefit of self-spotting. I think many people underestimate this
benefit. If you look from a DX point of you there is definitely not so big
benefit and maybe even disadvantage but from our perspective here in EU the
effect is very strong especially for SOAB stations. Quick spotting is
essential for getting a run going after changing the band. Especially US
I, being a semi-DX for us, used some spare time is ARRL for high bands
during the day. I think that there were very few ES stations on 20m. So I
started working US. The rate was below 100 for 30 minutes. 2 CQs - one
station or so. Then I got spotted and I had a 250 hour with rates over 300
for several periods and 7 stations in a minute!! I tell you that if you are
a SOAB station then immediate spots after band changes can give you huge
increase in score! That is the reason I started this whole analysis thing!


----- Original Message -----
From: "Tonno Vahk" <tonno.vahk at mail.ee>
Cc: <cq-contest at contesting.com>
Sent: Friday, April 11, 2003 12:16 PM
Subject: Re: [CQ-Contest] Fishy spots followed

> Yes,
> If the probability of a certain spot being submitted from Summit (with @
> sign) is 44% then the probability of 28 randomly selected independent
> all being with @ sign is 0.44 in the power of 28. That is 0.0000000104%
> ----- Original Message -----
> From: "Lyndon Nerenberg" <lyndon at orthanc.ab.ca>
> To: "Tonno Vahk" <tonno.vahk at mail.ee>
> Cc: <cq-contest at contesting.com>
> Sent: Thursday, April 10, 2003 11:05 PM
> Subject: Re: [CQ-Contest] Fishy spots followed
> > >All 28 spots are with @ sign! - As I am a lot into math and statistics
> my
> > >job, I like probablities, this probability is 0.000000000104!
> > >All but one have no decimal places in frequency! Spots following each
> other
> > >on the band are usually exactly on same frequency. This probability is
> > >around 1.5%
> >
> > Can you show how you derived these two probability values?
> >
> > --lyndon

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