[CQ-Contest] Fwd: AstroAlert: Middle Latitude Auroral Activity WATCH is Active

[Bill Tippett]

         Just in time for IARU!

                                         73,  Bill W4ZV

>From: Cary Oler <oler at solar.spacew.com>
>Subject: AstroAlert: Middle Latitude Auroral Activity WATCH is Active
>To: sun-earth at SkyandTelescope.com
>Date: Fri, 11 Jul 2003 14:51:37 -0600 (MDT)

>=================================================================
>This Is SKY & TELESCOPE's AstroAlert for Sun-Earth Interactions
>=================================================================
>
>                             A s t r o  A l e r t
>                                Sun-Earth Alert
>
>                           Solar Terrestrial Dispatch
>                             http://www.spacew.com
>
>                                  11 July 2003
>
>MIDDLE LATITUDE AURORA WATCH
>
>      The "northern lights" may become sporadically visible over middle
>latitude regions of North America and Europe tonight. Effects of a well
>placed solar coronal hole have resulted in increasing solar wind velocities
>in space that are supporting the development of occasional auroral substorms.
>
>      A middle latitude aurora watch has been issued and is valid through
>tonight and tommorrow. Details follow below.
>
>                 /\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\
>
>                     MIDDLE LATITUDE AURORAL ACTIVITY WATCH
>
>                     WATCH ISSUED: 06:05 UTC, 11 JULY 2003
>
>                 /\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\
>
>
>VALID BEGINNING AT: EFFECTIVE IMMEDIATELY
>VALID UNTIL: 23:00 UTC (7 pm EDT) ON 12 JULY
>
>HIGH RISK PERIOD: 11 - 12 JULY (UTC DAYS)
>MODERATE RISK PERIOD: 11 JULY - 12 JULY
>
>PREDICTED ACTIVITY INDICES: 25, 25, 20, 15 (11 JULY - 14 JULY)
>
>POTENTIAL MAGNITUDE OF MIDDLE LATITUDE AURORAL ACTIVITY: MODERATE
>
>POTENTIAL DURATION OF THIS ACTIVITY: MAIN BELT = VARIABLE
>                                     MINOR BELT = 24 TO 48 HOURS
>
>ESTIMATED OPTIMUM OBSERVING CONDITIONS: NEAR LOCAL MIDNIGHT
>
>EXPECTED LUNAR INTERFERENCE: MODERATE TO HIGH
>
>OVERALL OPPORTUNITY FOR OBSERVATIONS FROM MIDDLE LATITUDES: FAIR TO POOR
>
>AURORAL ACTIVITY *MAY* BE OBSERVED APPROXIMATELY NORTH OF A LINE FROM...
>
>    NORTHERN WASHINGTON STATE TO SOUTHERN MONTANA TO SOUTH DAKOTA TO CENTRAL
>    MINNESOTA TO NORTHERN WISCONSIN TO CENTRAL MICHIGAN TO NORTHERN NEW YORK
>    STATE TO MAINE.
>
>
>ACTIVITY *MAY* ALSO BE OBSERVED APPROXIMATELY NORTH OF A LINE FROM...
>
>    NORTHERN UNITED KINGDOM TO NORTHERN DENMARK AND POSSIBLY EXTREME NORTHERN
>    GERMANY TO SOUTHERN SWEDEN TO SOUTHERN FINLAND AND POSSIBLY LATVIA AND
>    ESTONIA TO NORTH-CENTRAL RUSSIA.
>
>    NEW ZEALAND AND SOUTH EASTERN REGIONS OF AUSTRALIA MAY ALSO OBSERVE
>    PERIODS OF ACTIVITY.
>
>SYNOPSIS...
>
>      A strong and sustained southward turning over the IMF has been observed
>over the last 10 hours that has resulted in periods of destabilized higher
>latitude auroral activity. Low solar wind velocities are minimizing the
>impact of these favorable solar magnetic fields. However, a higher velocity
>solar wind stream is expected to begin influencing the Earth over the next 24
>hours. If the fields remain southward, the strengthening solar wind velocity
>could promote the production of periods of moderately strong auroral
>substorming over the next 12 to 24 hours. As a result, a middle latitude
>auroral activity watch has been issued.
>
>UPDATE: The high velocity solar wind stream from the anticipated coronal hole
>disturbance are being observed now. Auroral activity has become sporadically
>strengthened. Some equatorward migration of the auroral oval has also been
>observed that may help promote middle latitude sightings.
>
>      This watch will remain valid through 23:00 UTC (7 pm EDT) on
>12 July. It will then be updated or allowed to expire. For updated
>information, visit: http://www.spacew.com/aurora/forum.html. For real-time
>plots of current activity, visit: http://www.spacew.com/plots.html
>
>               PLEASE REPORT OBSERVATIONS OF AURORAL ACTIVITY TO:
>                  http://www.spacew.com/submitsighting.html
>
>
>**  End of Watch  **
>
>
>
>**  End of the AstroAlert Bulletin  **
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