[CQ-Contest] Thoughts on a technique

[John WA2GO]

Knowledge is power. Anything you can learn and remember from past contests 
(at your station or at other stations in the same geographical area, if you 
can find people willing to share their old logs with you!) would be useful. 
Same disclaimer applies as on your investment statement: Past performance is 
no guarantee of future results. But it's a fairly decent indicator. Sure as 
heck better than operating blind every year and letting random luck run the 
show!

For example, if you worked your KL7 and VE8 at 2100z high in the band on 20M 
for three years out of four, then statistically speaking it's a good idea to 
check there at that time, or at least to be aware when it's 3PM that you 
might have a fruitful search if you start looking for them soon. Assembling 
more data will allow you to make more sophisticated predictions. For 
example, you notice (and remember) that you found KL7 on 20M in the "bad" 
sunspot years, but you found them on 15M in the "good" sunspot years.  Sure, 
the conditions in any given year can be wacky, and your expectations will 
not come to fruition, and some strange things will happen (like working EU 
while beaming south on 10M this year.) So that's still good info - because 
as soon as you make 1 or 2 qso's that you consider 'abnormal', you know that 
you are experiencing abnormal conditions, and know to look for other similar 
'abnormal' things to happen, and that your previously held expectations now 
are less likely to hold true.  (Until when and if you notice that conditions 
return to "normal".)

The example was for Sweepstakes, but the same goes for knowing when and 
where to look for VK/ZL, JT1, 9M8, DS2, ZS6, 3B8, TF3, etc. etc.  I always 
know to turn the beam a certain way during a certain brief window of the day 
to get answers from a certain set of countries, and yet am consistently 
amazed (and smug) when I turn the beam that way and put out some cq's and 
they start calling. I know that if I didn't know to do that, I would have 
NEVER worked those mults.

73 & happy holidays,

John
WA2GO



>From: Alfred J.Frugoli (KE1FO) <afrugoli at verizon.net>
>Reply-To: ke1fo at arrl.net
>To: <cq-contest at contesting.com>
>Subject: [CQ-Contest] Thoughts on a technique
>Date: Tue, 14 Dec 2004 0:56:35 +0000
>
>Over the years I have used previous years logs to make plans for an 
>upcoming contest (i.e. analyzing my 1999 CQWW RTTY log while planning for 
>the 2000 event).  Looking at what zones were worked on what bands during 
>what time slots to make band plans.  Looking at rates and planning 
>tentative off tiems.  I'll even go to the level of noting callsigns of 
>stations that were the only one worked in a particular zone so I'll be more 
>likley to realize they're probably a double mult.  I've always had good 
>results doing this, however I've had several vetran contesters scoff at the 
>technique because so much can change in a year (i.e. solar cycle, different 
>propigation from week to week and year to year, activity levels etc.)  It 
>has really helped me learn about propigation, wierd openings, who's where 
>on what mode etc.  I'm a fairly new contester (only semi-serious for about 
>8 years now) so maybe this is a good technique early on, but less effective 
>as you become more experienced?
>
>I'd like to hear other's thoughts.
>
>73 de Al, KE1FO
>
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