[CQ-Contest] Thoughts on a technique

[Alfred J.Frugoli (KE1FO)]

Over the years I have used previous years logs to make plans for an upcoming contest (i.e. analyzing my 1999 CQWW RTTY log while planning for the 2000 event).  Looking at what zones were worked on what bands during what time slots to make band plans.  Looking at rates and planning tentative off tiems.  I'll even go to the level of noting callsigns of stations that were the only one worked in a particular zone so I'll be more likley to realize they're probably a double mult.  I've always had good results doing this, however I've had several vetran contesters scoff at the technique because so much can change in a year (i.e. solar cycle, different propigation from week to week and year to year, activity levels etc.)  It has really helped me learn about propigation, wierd openings, who's where on what mode etc.  I'm a fairly new contester (only semi-serious for about 8 years now) so maybe this is a good technique early on, but less effective as you become more experienced?

I'd like to hear other's thoughts.

73 de Al, KE1FO