[CQ-Contest] CQWW trends - from 2007 to 2011

Stan ua1out at yahoo.com
Mon Aug 6 11:05:35 PDT 2012

::::: CQWW 2011 logs made public - YearOnYear 2007 - 2011 comparison

CQWW 2011 logs have been made public. We parsed the data, broke it down by geographical areas and compiled a set of reports that demonstrate trends in activity year to year from 2007 to 2011. CQ Analyzer application has been updated to show 2011 - both CQWW and CWWPX (http://www.ei6dx.com/cqww-contest-analysis/cqww-activity-analyzer/).

Full report is available here: http://www.ei6dx.com/cqww-contest-analysis/analytics-cqww-2007-11/

From high level, 2011 surprised everyone with great activity due to fantastic propagation on high bands and 28MHz in particular. 2011 generated the highest number of QSOs in 48 hours in CW and SSB ever. Compared to 2007, it had 50% more QSOs plus an impressive 27% increase compared to 2010, which, until last year, was the most successful contest. Some countries and continents advanced more than others. Overall most areas showed higher number of QSOs – both on CW and SSB, particularly on high bands. With Asiatic Russia showing a fantastic 630% raise in number of QSOs on 28MHz compared to 2010 and 11,000% (!!!) increase compared to 2007.

The following graphs provide an insight into which continents and areas advanced more and on what band. Use it to build your 2012 strategy and design band plans for the upcoming CQWW.

::::: High level band view

Have a look at the following two graphs. You can see a much bigger part of the graph occupied by the red area. It represents 28MHz. In total, 28MHz resulted in 659% increase in number of QSOs (+635% in SSB and +697% (!!) in CW).

Fig 3. 2010 band breakdown : http://www.ei6dx.com/wordpress/galleries/report/totals-2010.png
Fig 2. 2011 band breakdown : http://www.ei6dx.com/wordpress/galleries/report/totals-2011.png

:::::: QSO difference by area by mode – 2007 to 2011

The following graphs show breakdown QSO rates by area by year. Please note that the system where possible only looks at QSO generated by areas outside of DX-pedition interest. This way information is not skewed by increase or decrease in DX-pedition activity. Each area on the graph is represented by CQ zones shown in brackets. Click on any graph to zoom in.

Fig 3. Year on year increase per area : http://www.ei6dx.com/wordpress/galleries/report/areas-yoy.png
Fig 4. Year on year increase per area – CW only : http://www.ei6dx.com/wordpress/galleries/report/areas-yoy-cw.png
Fig 5. Year on year increase per area – SSB only : http://www.ei6dx.com/wordpress/galleries/report/areas-yoy-ssb.png

*** Insights

* Highest increases in 2011 are in Far east, Australia and North America (+80% to 120%). Moderate in Russia and Balkans (40% to 60%). Almost no increase in EU and SA. This is a bit worrying.
* VK-ZL recovered from QSO rate dip in 2010 reported in our previous review. 2011 increase – 50% compared to 2009 and 100 to 2010. Well done!
* Most impressive increases are in China and NA.
* CW shows higher increases compared to SSB in all areas.
* Lowest growth is in Europe. If 2012 propagation does not improve, we believe Europe will see a drop in activity.
* Overall, what a year 2011 was! Will it be repeated in 2012?

:::::: QSO difference by area by by band – watch 28MHz

The following graphs show breakdowns by band. It will be important to watch propagation in the coming weeks to try and predict QSO rates and build band plans. Best way to look at it is to use the CQ Analyzer control and select your CQ zone to obtain per hour breakdowns.

Fig 6. Year on year increase per area – 160 : http://www.ei6dx.com/wordpress/galleries/report/areas-yoy-160.png
Fig 7. Year on year increase per area – 80 : http://www.ei6dx.com/wordpress/galleries/report/areas-yoy-80.png
Fig 8. Year on year increase per area – 40 : http://www.ei6dx.com/wordpress/galleries/report/areas-yoy-40.png
Fig 9. Year on year increase per area – 20 : http://www.ei6dx.com/wordpress/galleries/report/areas-yoy-20.png
Fig 10. Year on year increase per area – 15 : http://www.ei6dx.com/wordpress/galleries/report/areas-yoy-15.png
Fig 11. Year on year increase per area – 10 : http://www.ei6dx.com/wordpress/galleries/report/areas-yoy-10.png

*** Insights

* 160 metres – decrease across all areas (-18% to 32%), highest decrease in China (-60%). Lowest decrease in EU Russia (-7%). VKZL showed a tiny increase.
* 80 metres – all decreased from -4% (China) to -66% (SA)
* 40 metres – mixed : huge decrease in SA (-47%), some in EU (-7% to 10%), small in VKZL (-2.6%). Others increased. Highest in NA of +62%. Followed by Asiatic Russia of +43.5%.
* 20 metres – big decreases in China (-27.7%), EU (-23-30%), JAHL (-36%). No change in others most. Big jump in VKZL of +52%.
* 15 metres – an increase across the board except West EU (-5%) and SA (-17.6%). Biggest increases in JAHL (+224%!) and Asiatic Russia (+113.8%).
* 10 metres – huge increases everywhere. The winners are NA (+2587%), JAHL (+3033%) and Asiatic Russia (+11359%). Well done guys!
* Overall we can say that with increase of propagation on high bands, SA moves there faster than every other areas. Don’t expect a lot of calls from SA on 160 and 80. They are * worth hunting for even on 40 and 20!
* Per band breakdown confirms that EU shows the lowest increase in 2011. Even 15 and 10 metres did not show a huge increase.
* Far East, Russia, Oceania and North America are true winners in QSO rates.

vy 73


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