[CQ-Contest] Will there be anyone to work in 20 years?

[David Gilbert]

A couple of comments:

a.  I don't believe for a minute that the number of licenses translates 
to the amount of activity on the bands.  Most bands are practically dead 
much of the day even now that the sunspot cycle has been high.  At the 
very least that all time high for licenses doesn't equate to an all time 
high for activity.  The only exceptions are during contests.

b.  The last time that I bothered to check into the numbers, the number 
of new licenses was almost (as in the high 90 percentages) offset by the 
number of abandoned licenses, meaning that ham radio has very little 
traction with newcomers.

c.  Compare pictures of ham radio conventions and club meetings taken 
today versus those taken 30 years ago.  For the most part, everyone in 
view just looks 30 years older.  Extrapolation isn't always justifiable, 
but in this case I think it is pretty much an irrefutable trend.

d.  There is only one way to look at stars of your own choosing in real 
time.  There are MANY ways (most of them of better quality than ham 
radio) to communicate with others in real time.

73,
Dave   AB7E




On 5/30/2013 7:28 AM, Joe wrote:
> Similar Situation.
>
> Go figure the guy (ME) that has limited income, what does he do? He 
> has TWO hobbies that can be and now days mostly are expensive to do.
>
> Radio, & Astronomy.
>
> These two hobbies are very similar in nature. for the most part they 
> are indeed hobbies one does alone.
>
> And entry level Radios, and Telescopes are priced similar a few 
> hundred bucks.
>
> Then the top of the line stuff can be very expensive. Telescopes can 
> make Radio equipment look like garage sale prices. Like $20,000.00 
> bucks! And just like radio  that is just the scope. you still can 
> spend thousands on prerferial support equipment. Like top of the line 
> Eyepieces. Without them the scope can not be used. You look through 
> the eyepiece. Top of the line ones can easily cost several hundred 
> dollars just for one. And you need many to fully utilize the 
> capabilities of the scope.
>
> Analogy  Radio = Antenns,,  Telescope = Eyepieces.
>
> And everything is similar ya got radios and telescopes,  ya got Towers 
> and antennas,  and outside shelters for the telescopes. computers for 
> both. as well as tons of other perferial support equipments.
>
> I fount the two hobbies are complimentary, daytime play radio, cloudy 
> nights play radio, clear nights use telescope.
>
> There are clubs for each.
> There are organizations that support and promote both like the ARRL 
> for Amateur Radio, and the Astronomical League for Astronomy.
>
> Thing is even tho the estimated population of Amateur Astronomers is 
> hard to determine, (no license required and able to track) the latest 
> estimate from the Astronomical league say that the population in the 
> USA is between 300,000 and 400,000 people are interested in Astronomy, 
> as a hobby more than just the casual interest, in other words just 
> like the level of interest of someone interested in radio and was 
> interested enough to get their license.
>
> Even more similarities are
> Amateur Radio has "HOA's" and CC&R's that restrict their ability to do 
> the hobby,
> Astronomy has Light pollution.
>
> But there is one BIG difference that i see between the two.
>
> Amateur Radio has more licensed in the hobby than it has ever had in 
> history, yet all ya hear is how it is a dead hobby, and need to get 
> more people involved. or it will surely die soon. 700,000+ licenced in 
> USA alone
>
> Astronomy maybe only has 300,000 to 400,000 in the hobby in the USA,  
> yet the hobby is thriving and you never ever hear about it dieing. The 
> only thing you hear is to be really serious about it you have to now 
> either live where there are no lights, or spend hours driving to one 
> hoping for good weather.
>
> Imagine having to every time you wanted to use your radios having to 
> do it AKA Field Day style! Where you can't do it where you live and 
> you have to drive 500 miles to set up and play radio, thats what 
> probably 90% of amateur astronomers now have to do.
>
> Yet I have yet to hear one compliant about the hobby dieing and 
> needing to get more people interested.
>
> Interesting huh?
>
> Joe WB9SBD