[CQ-Contest] Will the next solar cycles be weaker than current Solar

[ve1dt at infinichron.com]

Apparently, a lot can change between 2006 and 2008.

> Gerald, VE1DT

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Solar_cycle_24

Predictions
Prior to the minimum between the end of Solar Cycle 23 and the beginning of
Solar Cycle 24, there were essentially two competing theories about how
strong Solar Cycle 24 would be. The two camps could be distinguished by
those postulating the Sun retained a long memory (Solar Cycle 24 would be
active) or whether it had a short memory (Solar Cycle 24 would be quiet).
Prior to 2006, the difference was very drastic with a minority set of
researchers predicting "the smallest solar cycle in 100 years."[6] Another
group of researchers, including one at NASA, were predicting that it "looks
like its going to be one of the most intense cycles since record-keeping
began almost 400 years ago."[7]
The delayed onset of high latitude spots indicating the start of Solar Cycle
24 led the "active cycle" researchers to revise their predictions downward
and the consensus by 2007 was split 5-4 in favor of a smaller cycle.[8] By
2012, consensus was a small cycle, as solar cycles are much more predictable
3 years after minima.



On 11/15/2017 4:35 PM, David Gilbert wrote:
I don't remember that at all.  I saw a lot of different forecasts, and none
claimed that Cycle 24 was going to be a record.

Here is a link to a pdf file from 2008 that summarized fifty (50!) different
forecasts for Cycle 24.

https://link.springer.com/content/pdf/10.1007%2Fs11207-008-9252-2.pdf

*  Roughly 80% of those 50 forecasts predicted a maximum of 140 or
less, compared to the maximum for Cycle 23 of 180.

*  The highest of any the 50 predictions for Cycle 24 was about 185
... roughly even with Cycle 23 and well below Cycle 19's record figure of
250.

*  The average for all 50 predictions was a peak of 115, while the actual
peak for Cycle 24 was 116.

Bashing scientists seems to be great sport in some circles, but I'll take
their word any day over that of someone that didn't even bother to fact
check their own comment.  That seems to be a common theme in general
nowadays.

Dave   AB7E



On 11/15/2017 4:35 PM, John Geiger wrote:
If you remember near the end of Cycle 23, scientists were predicting that
Cycle 24 might be the largest one on record.  Shows how good their
predictions are.

73 John AF5CC