[CQ-Contest] Will the next solar cycles be weaker than current Solar Cycle 24?

[RT Clay]

In many science fields, unfortunately only the flashiest and most unusual results get reported to (and over hyped by) the popular press. Read for example the consensus statement of the panel prediction at the time:

http://legacy-www.swpc.noaa.gov/SolarCycle/SC24/Statement_01.html
http://legacy-www.swpc.noaa.gov/SolarCycle/SC24/PressRelease.html


Tor
N4OGW

--------------------------------------------
On Thu, 11/16/17, John Geiger <af5cc2 at gmail.com> wrote:

 Subject: Re: [CQ-Contest] Will the next solar cycles be weaker than current Solar Cycle 24?
 To: "David Gilbert" <xdavid at cis-broadband.com>
 Cc: "CQ-Contest Reflector" <cq-contest at contesting.com>
 Date: Thursday, November 16, 2017, 9:19 AM
 
 Here is one story on the
 incorrect prediction:
 
 https://science.nasa.gov/science-news/science-at-nasa/2006/21dec_cycle24/
 
 73 John AF5CC
 
 On Thu, Nov 16, 2017 at 12:06
 AM, David Gilbert <xdavid at cis-broadband.com>
 wrote:
 
 >
 > I don't remember that at all.  I saw
 a lot of different forecasts, and
 > none
 claimed that Cycle 24 was going to be a record.
 >
 > Here is a link to a
 pdf file from 2008 that summarized fifty (50!)
 > different forecasts for Cycle 24.
 >
 > https://link.springer.com/content/pdf/10.1007%2Fs11207-008-9252-2.pdf
 >
 > *  Roughly 80% of
 those 50 forecasts predicted a maximum of 140 or less,
 > compared to the maximum for Cycle 23 of
 180.
 >
 > *  The
 highest of any the 50 predictions for Cycle 24 was about 185
 ...
 > roughly even with Cycle 23 and well
 below Cycle 19's record figure of 250.
 >
 > *  The average for
 all 50 predictions was a peak of 115, while the actual
 > peak for Cycle 24 was 116.
 >
 > Bashing scientists
 seems to be great sport in some circles, but I'll
 take
 > their word any day over that of
 someone that didn't even bother to fact
 > check their own comment.  That seems to
 be a common theme in general
 >
 nowadays.
 >
 > Dave  
 AB7E
 >
 >
 >
 > On 11/15/2017 4:35
 PM, John Geiger wrote:
 >
 >> If you remember near the end of Cycle
 23, scientists were predicting that
 >>
 Cycle 24 might be the largest one on record.  Shows how
 good their
 >> predictions are.
 >>
 >> 73 John
 AF5CC
 >>
 >> On
 Wed, Nov 15, 2017 at 4:37 PM, Doug Renwick <ve5ra at sasktel.net>
 wrote:
 >>
 >>
 Hopefully they are not the same so named scientists that
 guessed the world
 >>> was going to
 heat up due to man made pollution.
 >>>
 >>>
 Doug
 >>>
 >>> -----Original Message-----
 >>>
 >>> Our
 scientists, physicists and engineers may enjoy this recent
 article:
 >>>
 >>>
 >>> https://arxiv.org/pdf/1711.04117.pdf
 >>>
 >>>
 >>> It predicts that upcoming Solar
 Cycle 25 will be weaker than current
 >>> Solar Cycle 24. It also predicts
 that Solar Cycle 26 in the 2030s will
 >>> be about the same as Solar Cycle
 25
 >>>
 >>>
 >>> Those
 of us that can hang on for another 30 years are forecast
 to
 >>> e njoy a stronger Solar
 Cycle 27. Solar Cycles 28 (in the 2050s)
 >>> and 29 (in the 2060s) are forecast
 to be even stronger...
 >>>
 >>>
 >>> 73
 >>> Frank
 >>>
 W3LPL
 >>>
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