[CQ-Contest] Will the next solar cycles be weaker than current Solar Cycle 24?

[Bob Shohet, KQ2M]

What AF5CC wrote:

>> If you remember near the end of Cycle 23, scientists were predicting that
>> Cycle 24 might be the largest one on record.  Shows how good their
>> predictions are.
>>
>> 73 John AF5CC



What the actual article cited by AF5CC said:

“This would make it one of the strongest solar cycles of the past fifty years—which is to say, one of the strongest in recorded history.”


Their prediction (while inaccurate) is a far cry from what you claimed they wrote.  

Next time it might be wise to READ the article before you misrepresent what it says.  Furthermore, in the future, before you decide to bash an entire field of highly educated academics and professionals who have devoted many years to their study, it would be appropriate to spend the time necessary to read and understand the literature in the field on the particular topic on which you are commenting, otherwise your opinion on that field is based on ignorance and personal bias.  Citing only ONE example of something out of dozens or hundreds, as the basis upon which you decide to bash the entirety, is both lazy and irresponsible. 


Bob  KQ2M


From: John Geiger 
Sent: Thursday, November 16, 2017 10:19 AM
To: David Gilbert 
Cc: CQ-Contest Reflector 
Subject: Re: [CQ-Contest] Will the next solar cycles be weaker than current Solar Cycle 24?

Here is one story on the incorrect prediction:

https://science.nasa.gov/science-news/science-at-nasa/2006/21dec_cycle24/

73 John AF5CC

On Thu, Nov 16, 2017 at 12:06 AM, David Gilbert <xdavid at cis-broadband.com>
wrote:

>
> I don't remember that at all.  I saw a lot of different forecasts, and
> none claimed that Cycle 24 was going to be a record.
>
> Here is a link to a pdf file from 2008 that summarized fifty (50!)
> different forecasts for Cycle 24.
>
> https://link.springer.com/content/pdf/10.1007%2Fs11207-008-9252-2.pdf
>
> *  Roughly 80% of those 50 forecasts predicted a maximum of 140 or less,
> compared to the maximum for Cycle 23 of 180.
>
> *  The highest of any the 50 predictions for Cycle 24 was about 185 ...
> roughly even with Cycle 23 and well below Cycle 19's record figure of 250.
>
> *  The average for all 50 predictions was a peak of 115, while the actual
> peak for Cycle 24 was 116.
>
> Bashing scientists seems to be great sport in some circles, but I'll take
> their word any day over that of someone that didn't even bother to fact
> check their own comment.  That seems to be a common theme in general
> nowadays.
>
> Dave   AB7E
>
>
>
> On 11/15/2017 4:35 PM, John Geiger wrote:
>
>> If you remember near the end of Cycle 23, scientists were predicting that
>> Cycle 24 might be the largest one on record.  Shows how good their
>> predictions are.
>>
>> 73 John AF5CC