[CQ-Contest] At least four more years of solar minimum?

[John Geiger]

That is kind of what I was thinking also.  The last solar minimum was in
2007, which is 11 years ago, so we should be at the next minimum right now,
and many days have occurred recently with 0 sunspots.  I think Cycle 24
first peaked in 2012, so around 2023 should be the next peak,not the end of
the minimum.

73 John AF5CC

On Sat, Dec 8, 2018 at 1:48 PM David Gilbert <xdavid at cis-broadband.com>
wrote:

>
> Very interesting.  That prediction, if accurate, would give a cycle
> duration of at least 14 years instead of the nominal 11 years.  I can't
> find anything in the historical record that would indicate such a
> drastic deviation.  The only possible exception I could find is that the
> first cycle coming out of the Maunder Minimum looks like it may have
> been significantly longer than 11 years ... the data preceding the
> Maunder Minimum looks too sketchy to tell.  Hopefully that's not where
> we're headed.
>
> It just seems that the NASA projection sounds more like a "we don't
> really know" proposition more than anything else.  That's certainly fair
> at this point, but I'm not going to take down my tribander based upon
> it.  ;)
>
> 73,
> Dave   AB7E
>
>
> On 12/7/2018 10:50 PM, donovanf at starpower.net wrote:
> >
> > NOAA updated its predictions for smoothed sunspot numbers and solar flux
> through the end of 2022. As of last month, their predictions ended in 2019.
> > Their prediction shows a smoothed sunspot number of 10 for December
> 2018, declining to 2 in July 2020 through January 2021, then 1 during
> February 2021 through January 2022, and 0 after that and through at least
> the end of 2022.
> > www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/solar-cycle-progression
> > I hate predictions, especially about the future...
> > 73
> > Frank
> > W3LPL
> >
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