[CQ-Contest] Highly regarded solar physicist Leif Svalgaard predicts solar cycle 25

donovanf at erols.com donovanf at erols.com
Tue Oct 6 10:07:08 EDT 2020

Leif Svalgaard of the W.W. Hansen Experimental Physics Laboratory at 
Stanford University -- a highly regarded solar physicist -- predicts 
solar cycle 25 SSN of 128 +/- 10. 

According to Svalgaard: 

"This prediction is near the average (123±21) of the 6 (now 7) precursor 
methods that seem to be preferred. The overall average is 132±47 (median 124). 
The overall average is 132±47 (median 124). None of these numbers are 
substantially different, so one could perhaps just go with the “Wisdom of the Crowd” 
(Aristotle, 350 BCE, “Politics”, III:xi; Galton, 1907)." 

" All predictions that we consider have the underlying assumption that the 
sun has not changed its behavior (its “spots” so to speak) on a timescale 
of a few centuries (the Maunder Minimum may be a possible violation of 
that assumption) and that there will be no such changes in the near future, 
in spite of speculative suggestions like in Livingston et al. (2010) and Svalgaard (2013)." 



More information about the CQ-Contest mailing list