[Mldxcc] Fwd: [NCDXC Chat] Heard on 160m from Bay Area

[Rick WA6NHC]

-------- Forwarded Message --------
Subject: 	[NCDXC Chat] Heard on 160m from Bay Area
Date: 	Wed, 30 Mar 2016 20:52:21 +0000
From: 	Stuart Phillips via Chat <chat at ncdxc.org>
Reply-To: 	Stuart Phillips <stu at ridgelift.com>
To: 	Rick WA6NHC via Chat <chat at ncdxc.org>




One of the propagation tools I own is ProLab Pro – this is a 
professional tool that performs ray tracing through a version of the 
International Reference Ionosphere – in this case IRI-2007.  Unlike 
VOACAP, this model works well at 160m.  The tool is excellent despite 
limits with its plotting capabilities and consumers massive amounts of 
CPU time to do extensive coverage maps.

I have used this tool to model Dxpedition performance and have then 
compared the results against the logs of what was actually worked.  The 
results from log analysis show very strong correlation with the model 
output.

For my own amusement, I just ran an analysis for a specific circuit from 
Heard Island to my QTH in Woodside. The results are most sobering


With the current solar and geomagnetic conditions from today, I modeled 
the gray line propagation (which is modeled quite well by Proplab Pro) 
at their sunset - using a quarter wave vertical antenna on a beach as 
the TX antenna with the 400 watt VK power limit, with a vertical 
monopole antenna as the receive side (-0.3 dBi gain over my ground) the 
predicted signal level is


-118 dBm

Like most propagation predictions, this is a median value so sometime it 
might be better than this or (if you can say it with a straight face) 
sometimes worse.

Anyone who works VK0EK from the Bay Area should treat themselves to a 
very good bottle of Champagne – the Gods of the Ionosphere are probably 
never on our side from the West Coast but I fear their laughter may be 
the only thing we do hear relative to Heard on TopBand.

 From working with over 40 Dxpeditions on antenna and propagation 
planning, I’ve learnt the predictions are a good yard stick – surprises 
(good and bad) still present themselves but the predictions are rarely 
totally wrong.

Working VK0EK on 160m from the Bay Area looks extraordinarily tough.
Stu K6TU


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