[RSM] W3LPL: Mostly normal thru Tues/14

[Art Boyars]

From: Frank W3LPL <donovanf at starpower.net>
To: PVRC <pvrc at mailman.qth.net>
Cc:
Bcc:
Date: Sun, 12 Dec 2021 23:46:00 -0500 (EST)
Subject: [PVRC] Mostly normal propagation is likely through Tuesday
December 14th

by Frank Donovan, W3LPL

_____________________________________________________________________

My propagation forecast derived from today's NOAA/SWPC web pages
is published five days a week (M-F) in the Daily DX. All days and times in
this forecast are in UTC (Zulu) time.

Propagation crossing low and mid-latitudes is likely to be normal through
Tuesday.

Propagation crossing the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely to be
mostly normal with brief mildly below normal intervals through Tuesday.

Click *here* <https://services.swpc.noaa.gov/images/planetary-k-index.gif>
for today’s
latest planetary Kp Index, updated every three hours. Click *here*
<http://www.hamqsl.com/solar.html> for N0NBH’s current HF Band Conditions,
updated regularly.

The solar flux index (SFI) is likely to be about 80 through Tuesday. There
is one active region on the visible disk with two tiny sunspots having
little effect on HF propagation.
https://sdo.gsfc.nasa.gov/assets/img/latest/latest_1024_0171.jpg

160 and 80 meter propagation from North America to VK/ZL and the south
Pacific is likely to be normal through Tuesday. 160 and 80 meter
propagation from North America to Asia is likely to be mostly normal with
brief mildly below normal intervals through Tuesday.

40 meter short path propagation from North America to south Asia is likely
to be mostly normal with brief mildly below normal intervals through
Tuesday. 40 meter short path propagation from North America to east Asia
after about 0730Z is likely to be mostly normal with brief mildly below
normal intervals through Tuesday.

30 meter propagation through the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely
to be mostly normal with brief mildly below normal intervals through
Tuesday. 30 meter propagation is always significantly degraded within a few
hours of local noon because of E-region blanketing of long distance F2
propagation.

20 meter daytime and evening propagation through the auroral ovals and
polar regions is likely to be mostly normal with brief mildly below normal
intervals through Tuesday. 20 meter transpolar propagation within a few
hours of sunrise and sunset is likely to be mostly normal with brief mildly
below normal intervals through Tuesday.

17 and 15 meter long distance propagation is likely to be mostly normal with
brief mildly below normal intervals through Tuesday while 12 and 10 meter
long distance propagation is likely to be significantly less reliable and
shorter in duration.

Geomagnetic disturbances *caused by CME and coronal hole high speed*
*stream* effects are likely to remain mostly brief, minor and somewhat less
frequent through at least late 2021. Persistent southward orientation (-Bz)
of the north-south component of the interplanetary magnetic field (IMF)
plays a *crucial but unpredictable role* in triggering all geomagnetic
storms. Brief minor to moderate geomagnetic storms may be gradually
triggered when the IMF persists in a southward orientation (-Bz) with IMF
field strength of about 5 nanoteslas for several hours *coincident with* the
effects of an Earth directed *coronal* *hole high speed stream*. More
frequent, longer duration, minor to severe geomagnetic storms may be
triggered *suddenly* *and unpredictably *when the IMF persists in a
southward orientation (-Bz) with IMF field strength significantly stronger
than 5 nanoteslas for several hours or more *coincident with* the effects
of an Earth directed fast CME. Real time geomagnetic data including Bz
orientation and IMF field strength are available here:
www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/geospace-geomagnetic-activity-plot

The solar wind is likely to be mostly near nominal levels with possible mild
enhancements caused by waning coronal hole high speed stream effects through
Tuesday.

The geomagnetic field is likely to be mostly quiet with unsettled intervals
caused by waning coronal hole high speed stream effects through Tuesday.

Mid-latitude northern hemisphere sunset is 78 minutes earlier and daylength
is 160 minutes shorter than it was on September 22nd. Daytime ionization
and residual nighttime ionization in the northern polar region is very
low due to polar night effects.

Click *here* <https://www.spaceweather.gc.ca/solarflux/sx-4-en.php> for today’s
Penticton 10.7 cm solar flux index updated at 1700Z, 2000Z and 2300Z daily.
Click *here*
<https://spaceweather.gfz-potsdam.de/fileadmin/ruggero/Kp_forecast/forecast_figures/KP_FORECAST_CURRENT.png>
for today’s
three-day GFZ Planetary K Index forecast updated every three hours. Click
*here* <http://sidc.oma.be/products/meu/> for today's SIDC Daily Bulletin
on Solar and Geomagnetic Activity updated at 1230Z daily. Click *here*
<https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/forecast-discussion> for today's SWPC
Solar Activity Forecast Discussion updated at 0030Z and 1230Z daily. Click
*here* <https://www.sws.bom.gov.au/Space_Weather/1/1> for today's
Australian Space Forecast Centre Summary and Forecast updated at 2330Z
daily.

Perhaps the most useful HF propagation pages for DXers can be found at:
http://dx.qsl.net/propagation and http://www.solarham.net



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