[RSM] W3LPL: Mostly normal thru Thurs/16

[Art Boyars]

From: Frank W3LPL <donovanf at starpower.net>
To: PVRC <pvrc at mailman.qth.net>
Cc:
Bcc:
Date: Wed, 15 Dec 2021 00:15:17 -0500 (EST)
Subject: [PVRC] Mostly normal propagation is likely through Thursday

My propagation forecast derived from today's NOAA/SWPC web pages
is published five days a week (M-F) in the Daily DX. All days and times in
this forecast are in UTC (Zulu) time.

Propagation crossing low and mid-latitudes is likely to be normal through
Thursday.

Propagation crossing the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely to be
mostly normal with a chance of mildly below normal intervals through early
Thursday.

Click *here* <https://services.swpc.noaa.gov/images/planetary-k-index.gif>
for today’s
latest planetary Kp Index, updated every three hours. Click *here*
<http://www.hamqsl.com/solar.html> for N0NBH’s current HF Band Conditions,
updated regularly.

The solar flux index (SFI) is likely to be about 90 through Thursday. There
are three active regions on the visible disk with ten tiny sunspots.
https://sdo.gsfc.nasa.gov/assets/img/latest/latest_1024_0171.jpg

160 and 80 meter propagation from North America to VK/ZL and the south
Pacific is likely to be normal through Thursday. 160 and 80 meter
propagation from North America to Asia is likely to be mostly normal with a
chance of mildly below normal intervals through early Thursday.

40 meter short path propagation from North America to south Asia is likely
to be mostly normal with a chance of mildly below normal intervals through
early Thursday. 40 meter short path propagation from North America to east
Asia after about 0730Z is likely to be mostly normal with a chance of
mildly below normal intervals through early Thursday.

30 meter propagation through the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely
to be mostly normal with a chance of mildly below normal intervals through
early Thursday. 30 meter propagation is always significantly degraded
within a few hours of local noon because of E-region blanketing of long
distance F2 propagation.

20 meter daytime and evening propagation through the auroral ovals and
polar regions is likely to be mostly normal with a chance of mildly below
normal intervals through early Thursday. 20 meter transpolar propagation
within a few hours of sunrise and sunset is likely to be mostly normal with
a chance of mildly below normal intervals through early Thursday.

17 and 15 meter long distance propagation is likely to be mostly normal
with a chance of mildly below normal intervals through early Thursday while
12 and 10 meter long distance propagation is likely to be less reliable and
shorter in duration.

Geomagnetic disturbances *caused by CME and coronal hole high speed*
*stream* effects are likely to remain mostly a chance of, minor and
somewhat less frequent through at least late 2021. Persistent southward
orientation (-Bz) of the north-south component of the interplanetary
magnetic field (IMF) plays a *crucial but* *unpredictable role* in
triggering all geomagnetic storms. A chance of minor to moderate
geomagnetic storms may be gradually triggered when the IMF persists in a
southward orientation (-Bz) with IMF field strength of about 5 nanoteslas
for several hours *coincident* *with* the effects of an Earth directed *coronal
hole high speed* *stream*. More frequent, longer duration, minor to severe
geomagnetic storms may be triggered *suddenly* *and unpredictably *when the
IMF persists in a southward orientation (-Bz) with IMF field strength
significantly stronger than 5 nanoteslas for several hours or more *coincident
with* the effects of an Earth directed fast CME. Real time geomagnetic data
including Bz orientation and IMF field strength are available here:
www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/geospace-geomagnetic-activity-plot

The solar wind is likely to be mostly near nominal levels with possible
mild enhancements caused by coronal hole high speed stream effects through
early Thursday.

The geomagnetic field is likely to be mostly quiet with unsettled intervals
caused by coronal hole high speed stream effects through early Thursday.
There is a chance of a chance of isolated active intervals through early
Thursday.

Mid-latitude northern hemisphere sunset is 77 minutes earlier and daylength
is 161 minutes shorter than it was on September 22nd. Daytime ionization
and residual nighttime ionization in the northern polar region is very
low due to polar night effects.

Click *here* <https://www.spaceweather.gc.ca/solarflux/sx-4-en.php> for today’s
Penticton 10.7 cm solar flux index updated at 1700Z, 2000Z and 2300Z daily.
Click *here*
<https://spaceweather.gfz-potsdam.de/fileadmin/ruggero/Kp_forecast/forecast_figures/KP_FORECAST_CURRENT.png>
for today’s
three-day GFZ Planetary K Index forecast updated every three hours. Click
*here* <http://sidc.oma.be/products/meu/> for today's SIDC Daily Bulletin
on Solar and Geomagnetic Activity updated at 1230Z daily. Click *here*
<https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/forecast-discussion> for today's SWPC
Solar Activity Forecast Discussion updated at 0030Z and 1230Z daily. Click
*here* <https://www.sws.bom.gov.au/Space_Weather/1/1> for today's
Australian Space Forecast Centre Summary and Forecast updated at 2330Z
daily.

Perhaps the most useful HF propagation pages for DXers can be found at:
http://dx.qsl.net/propagation and http://www.solarham.net

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