[RSM] W3LPL: Mostly normal thru Friday/17

[Art Boyars]

From: Frank W3LPL <donovanf at starpower.net>
To: PVRC <pvrc at mailman.qth.net>
Cc:
Bcc:
Date: Thu, 16 Dec 2021 02:10:03 -0500 (EST)
Subject: [PVRC] Mostly normal propagation is likely through Friday

My propagation forecast derived from today's NOAA/SWPC web pages
is published five days a week (M-F) in the Daily DX. All days and times in
this forecast are in UTC (Zulu) time.

Propagation crossing low latitudes is likely to be normal through Friday.

Propagation crossing mid latitudes. auroral ovals and polar regions is
likely to be mostly normal with a chance of mildly below normal intervals
through early Friday. There is a slight chance of brief radio blackouts on
the sun facing side of the earth through Friday.

Click *here* <https://services.swpc.noaa.gov/images/planetary-k-index.gif>
for today’s
latest planetary Kp Index, updated every three hours. Click *here*
<http://www.hamqsl.com/solar.html> for N0NBH’s current HF Band Conditions,
updated regularly.

The solar flux index (SFI) is likely to be at least 105 through Friday.
There are six active regions on the visible disk with 28 tiny to medium
sized sunspots.
https://sdo.gsfc.nasa.gov/assets/img/latest/latest_1024_0171.jpg

160 and 80 meter propagation from North America to VK/ZL and the south
Pacific is likely to be normal through Friday. 160 and 80 meter propagation
from North America to Asia is likely to be mostly normal with a chance of
mildly below normal intervals through early Friday.

40 meter short path propagation from North America to south Asia is likely
to be mostly normal with a chance of mildly below normal intervals through
early Friday. 40 meter short path propagation from North America to east
Asia after about 0730Z is likely to be mostly normal with a chance of
mildly below normal intervals through early Friday.

30 meter propagation through the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely
to be mostly normal with a chance of mildly below normal intervals through
early Friday. 30 meter propagation is always significantly degraded within
a few hours of local noon because of E-region blanketing of long distance
F2 propagation.

20 meter daytime and evening propagation through the auroral ovals and
polar regions is likely to be mostly normal with a chance of mildly below
normal intervals through early Friday. 20 meter transpolar propagation
within a few hours of sunrise and sunset is likely to be mostly normal with
a chance of mildly below normal intervals through early Friday.

17 and 15 meter long distance propagation is likely to be mostly normal
with a chance of mildly below normal intervals through early Friday. 12 and
10 meter long distance propagation is likely to be significantly improved
compared to recent weeks.

Geomagnetic disturbances *caused by CME and coronal hole high* *speed
stream* effects are likely to remain mostly a chance of, minor and somewhat
less frequent through at least late 2021. Persistent southward orientation
(-Bz) of the north-south component of the interplanetary magnetic field
(IMF) plays a *crucial but unpredictable role* in triggering all
geomagnetic storms. A chance of minor to moderate geomagnetic storms may be
gradually triggered when the IMF persists in a southward orientation (-Bz)
with IMF field strength of about 5 nanoteslas for several hours *coincident
with* the effects of an Earth directed *coronal hole high speed stream*.
More frequent, longer duration, minor to severe geomagnetic storms may be
triggered *suddenly* *and unpredictably *when the IMF persists in a
southward orientation (-Bz) with IMF field strength significantly stronger
than 5 nanoteslas for several hours or more *coincident with* the effects
of an Earth directed fast CME. Real time geomagnetic data including Bz
orientation and IMF field strength are available here:
www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/geospace-geomagnetic-activity-plot

The solar wind is likely to be at elevated levels with possible more
disturbed intervals caused by coronal hole high speed stream effects
through early Friday.

The geomagnetic field is likely to be mostly quiet with unsettled intervals
caused by coronal hole high speed stream effects through early Friday.
There is a chance of a chance of isolated active intervals through early
Friday.

There is a small chance that solar flares caused by significantly increased
sunspot activity may cause brief radio blackouts on the sun facing side of
the Earth through Friday.

Mid-latitude northern hemisphere sunset is 77 minutes earlier and daylength
is 161 minutes shorter than it was on September 22nd. Daytime ionization
and residual nighttime ionization in the northern polar region is very
low due to polar night effects.

Click *here* <https://www.spaceweather.gc.ca/solarflux/sx-4-en.php> for today’s
Penticton 10.7 cm solar flux index updated at 1700Z, 2000Z and 2300Z daily.
Click *here*
<https://spaceweather.gfz-potsdam.de/fileadmin/ruggero/Kp_forecast/forecast_figures/KP_FORECAST_CURRENT.png>
for today’s
three-day GFZ Planetary K Index forecast updated every three hours. Click
*here* <http://sidc.oma.be/products/meu/> for today's SIDC Daily Bulletin
on Solar and Geomagnetic Activity updated at 1230Z daily. Click *here*
<https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/forecast-discussion> for today's SWPC
Solar Activity Forecast Discussion updated at 0030Z and 1230Z daily. Click
*here* <https://www.sws.bom.gov.au/Space_Weather/1/1> for today's
Australian Space Forecast Centre Summary and Forecast updated at 2330Z
daily.

Perhaps the most useful HF propagation pages for DXers can be found at:
http://dx.qsl.net/propagation and http://www.solarham.net