[RSM] W3LPL prop forecast thru Sunday/20

[Art Boyars]

This bounced twice around 05Z. Let's see if it goes through this time.

On Fri, Jun 18, 2021 at 1:18 AM Art Boyars <artboyars at gmail.com> wrote:

> From: donovanf at erols.com
> To: PVRC <pvrc at mailman.qth.net>
> Cc:
> Bcc:
> Date: Fri, 18 Jun 2021 00:54:36 -0400 (EDT)
> Subject: [PVRC] Mostly normal propagation through Sunday
>
> Long distance propagation forecast for Friday through Sunday June 18-20
>
>
> My propagation forecast derived from today's NOAA/SWPC
>
> web pages is published five days a week (M-F) in the Daily DX.
>
>
>
> Low and mid latitude propagation is likely to be normal through Sunday.
>
>
>
> Propagation through the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely
>
> to be mostly normal on Friday improving to normal through Sunday.
>
>
> Click *here* <https://services.swpc.noaa.gov/images/planetary-k-index.gif>
>  for today’s latest planetary Kp Index, updated every three hours.
>
> Click *here* <http://www.hamqsl.com/solar.html> for N0NBH’s current HF
> Band Conditions, updated regularly.
>
>
> We are in the quiet geomagnetic activity season, only about half
>
> as many geomagnetically disturbed days occur in June and July
>
> compared to the more geomagnetically active equinox seasons.
>
>
>
> Sporadic-E propagation occurs every day during June and July
>
> at mid-latitudes in the northern hemisphere making long distance
>
> propagation up to 15,000 km sporadically available in the
>
> 17, 15, 12, 10 and 6 meter bands from sunrise through midnight
>
> and occasionally somewhat later.
>
>
>
> The solar flux index (SFI) is likely to be about 75 through Sunday.
>
> One active region with two small sunspots is having little effect
>
> on HF propagation.
>
>
>
> 160 and 80 meter propagation from North America to VK/ZL and
>
> the south Pacific is likely to be normal through Sunday. 40 meter
>
> short path propagation to south Asia is likely to be normal at about
>
> 0015Z Saturday and Sunday. 40 meter short path propagation from
>
> North America to east Asia after about 0930Z is likely to be mostly
>
> normal on Friday improving to normal through Sunday.
>
>
>
> 30 meter propagation through the auroral ovals and polar regions
>
> is likely to be mostly normal on Friday improving to normal through
>
> Sunday. 30 meter propagation is always significantly degraded
>
> within a few hours of local noon because of E-region blanketing of
>
> long distance F2 propagation. 30 meter night time long distance
>
> propagation in the northern hemisphere is likely to improve due to
>
> increased ionizing solar radiation in the northern high latitude regions
>
> caused by higher solar elevation angles and much shorter nights
>
> with no source of ionizing solar radiation.
>
>
>
> 20 meter daytime and evening propagation through the auroral ovals
>
> and polar regions is likely to be mostly normal on Friday improving to
>
> normal through Sunday. 20 meter northern transpolar propagation
>
> within a few hours of sunrise and sunset is improving with increased
>
> solar ionizing radiation on the northern polar region caused by higher
>
> solar elevation angles 24 hours per day during the midnight sun season.
>
> 20 meter long distance propagation is significantly degraded from
>
> mid-morning through late afternoon at low and mid-latitudes in the
>
> northern hemisphere by F1 region midday blanketing of low angle
>
> propagation during the summer. 20 meter nighttime long distance
>
> propagation in the northern hemisphere is likely to improve due to
>
> increased ionizing solar radiation in the northern high latitude regions
>
> caused by higher solar elevation angles and much shorter nights with
>
> no source of ionizing solar radiation.
>
>
>
> 17 and 15 meter daytime long distance propagation in the northern
>
> hemisphere is likely to improve due to increased ionizing solar
>
> radiation in the northern high latitude regions caused by higher solar
>
> elevation angles and longer days. 17, 15, 12, 10 and 6 meter sporadic-E
>
> propagation up to 15,000 km is likely to be sporadically available from
>
> sunrise through midnight and occasionally later through late July.
>
>
>
> Geomagnetic disturbances *caused by coronal hole high speed stream*
>
> effects are likely to remain mostly brief, minor and somewhat less
>
> frequent through at least late 2021. The southward oriented (-Bz)
>
> component of the IMF plays a *crucial but unpredictable role* in
>
> triggering all geomagnetic storms. Brief minor to moderate
>
> geomagnetic storms may be gradually triggered when the IMF persists
>
> in a southward orientation (-Bz) with enhanced IMF field strength
>
> for several hours *coincident with* the effects of an Earth directed
>
> *coronal hole high speed stream*. More frequent, longer duration,
>
> minor to severe geomagnetic storms may be triggered *suddenly* *and*
>
> *unpredictably *when the IMF persists in a southward orientation (-Bz)
>
> with enhanced IMF field strength for several hours or more
>
> *coincident with* the effects of an Earth directed fast CME.
>
>
>
> IMF field strength, solar wind speed near Earth and geomagnetic
>
> activity are likely to be slightly enhanced by waning coronal hole
>
> high speed stream effects on Friday then at background levels through
>
> Sunday. Geomagnetic storm, CME and solar flare activity are not likely
>
> through Sunday.
>
>
>
> Mid-latitude northern hemisphere sunset is now 75 minutes later and
>
> daylength is 164 minutes longer than it was on the March 20th.
>
> Daylength and solar elevation angle in the northern polar region will
>
> remain nearly constant until late June due to summer solstice effects.
>
>
> Click *here* <https://www.spaceweather.gc.ca/solarflux/sx-4-en.php> for
> today’s Penticton 10.7 cm solar flux index updated at 1700Z, 2000Z and
> 2300Z daily.
>
> Click *here*
> <https://spaceweather.gfz-potsdam.de/fileadmin/ruggero/Kp_forecast/forecast_figures/KP_FORECAST_CURRENT.png> for today’s
> three-day GFZ Planetary K Index forecast updated every three hours.
>
> Click *here* <http://sidc.oma.be/products/meu/> for today's SIDC Daily
> Bulletin on Solar and Geomagnetic Activity updated at 1230Z daily.
>
> Click *here* <https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/forecast-discussion> for today's
> SWPC Solar Activity Forecast Discussion updated at 0030Z and 1230Z daily.
>
> Click *here* <https://www.sws.bom.gov.au/Space_Weather/1/1> for today's
> Australian Space Forecast Centre Summary and Forecast updated at 2330Z
> daily.
>
>
>
> Perhaps the most useful HF propagation pages for DXers can be found at:
>
> http://dx.qsl.net/propagation and http://www.solarham.net
>
>