[RSM] Weekend forecast from W3LPL

[Art Boyars]

This has gotten rejected twice.

On Fri, Jun 25, 2021 at 2:16 PM Art Boyars <artboyars at gmail.com> wrote:

> From: donovanf at erols.com
> To: PVRC Reflector <pvrc at mailman.qth.net>
> Cc:
> Bcc:
> Date: Thu, 24 Jun 2021 23:38:53 -0400 (EDT)
> Subject: [PVRC] Normal propagation through Sunday
>
> Long distance propagation forecast for Friday-Sunday June 24-26
>
>
> My propagation forecast derived from today's NOAA/SWPC
>
> web pages is published five days a week (M-F) in the Daily DX.
>
>
>
> Propagation crossing low and mid latitudes is likely to be normal
>
> through Sunday.
>
>
>
> Propagation through the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely
>
> to be normal through Sunday
>
>
>
> Click *here* <https://services.swpc.noaa.gov/images/planetary-k-index.gif>
>  for today’s latest planetary Kp Index, updated every three hours.
>
> Click *here* <http://www.hamqsl.com/solar.html> for N0NBH’s current HF
> Band Conditions, updated regularly.
>
>
>
> We are in the quiet geomagnetic activity season, only about half as many
> geomagnetically disturbed days occur in June and July compared to the more
> geomagnetically active equinox seasons.
>
>
>
> Sporadic-E propagation occurs every day during June and July
>
> at mid-latitudes in the northern hemisphere making long distance
>
> propagation up to 15,000 km sporadically available in the
>
> 17, 15, 12, 10 and 6 meter bands from sunrise through midnight
>
> and occasionally somewhat later.
>
>
>
> The solar flux index (SFI) is likely to be about 82 through Sunday.
>
> One small sunspot is having a minor effect on HF propagation.
>
>
>
> 160 and 80 meter propagation from North America to VK/ZL and
>
> the south Pacific is likely to be normal through Sunday.
>
> 40 meter short path propagation to south Asia is likely to be normal
>
> at about 0015Z through Sunday. 40 meter short path propagation
>
> from North America to east Asia after about 0930Z is likely to be
>
> mostly normal through Sunday.
>
>
>
> 30 meter propagation through the auroral ovals and polar regions
>
> is likely to be mostly normal through Sunday. 30 meter propagation
>
> is always significantly degraded within a few hours of local noon
>
> because of E-region blanketing of long distance F2 propagation.
>
> 30 meter night time long distance propagation in the northern
>
> hemisphere is likely to improve due to increased ionizing solar
>
> radiation in the northern high latitude regions caused by higher
>
> solar elevation angles and much shorter nights with no source
>
> of ionizing solar radiation.
>
>
>
> 20 meter daytime and evening propagation through the auroral
>
> ovals and polar regions is likely to be normal through Sunday.
>
> 20 meter northern transpolar propagation within a few hours of
>
> sunrise and sunset is improving with increased solar ionizing
>
> radiation on the northern polar region caused by higher solar
>
> elevation angles 24 hours per day during the midnight sun season.
>
> 20 meter long distance propagation is significantly degraded from
>
> mid-morning through late afternoon at low and mid-latitude in the
>
> northern hemisphere by F1 region midday blanketing of low angle
>
> propagation during the summer. 20 meter nighttime long distance
>
> propagation in the northern hemisphere is likely to improve due to
>
> increased ionizing solar radiation in the northern high latitude
>
> regions caused by higher solar elevation angles and much shorter
>
> nights with no source of ionizing solar radiation.
>
>
>
> 17 and 15 meter daytime long distance propagation in the northern
>
> hemisphere is likely to improve due to increased ionizing solar
>
> radiation in the northern high latitude regions caused by higher
>
> solar elevation angles and longer days. 17, 15, 12, 10 and 6 meter
>
> sporadic-E propagation up to 15,000 km is likely to be sporadically
>
> available from sunrise through midnight and occasionally later
>
> through late July.
>
>
>
> Geomagnetic disturbances *caused by coronal hole high speed stream*
>
> effects are likely to remain mostly brief, minor and somewhat less
>
> frequent through at least late 2021. The southward oriented (-Bz)
>
> component of the IMF plays a *crucial but unpredictable role* in
>
> triggering all geomagnetic storms. Brief minor to moderate
>
> geomagnetic storms may be gradually triggered when the IMF
>
> persists in a southward orientation (-Bz) with enhanced IMF field
>
> strength for several hours *coincident with* the effects of an Earth
>
> directed *coronal hole high speed stream*. More frequent, longer
>
> duration, minor to severe geomagnetic storms may be triggered
>
> *suddenly* *and unpredictably *when the IMF persists in a southward
>
> orientation (-Bz) with enhanced IMF field strength for several
>
> hours or more *coincident with* the effects of an Earth directed fast
>
> CME.
>
>
>
> IMF field strength, solar wind speed near Earth and geomagnetic
>
> activity are likely to at background levels through Sunday. CMEs,
>
> coronal hole high speed stream effects, solar flare activity and
>
> geomagnetic storms are not likely through Sunday.
>
>
>
> Mid-latitude northern hemisphere sunset is now 77 minutes later and
>
> daylength is 164 minutes longer than it was on the March 20th.
>
> Daylength and solar elevation angle in the northern polar region
>
> will remain nearly constant until late June due to summer solstice
>
> effects.
>
>
>
> Click *here* <https://www.spaceweather.gc.ca/solarflux/sx-4-en.php> for
> today’s Penticton 10.7 cm solar flux index updated at 1700Z, 2000Z and
> 2300Z daily.
>
> Click *here*
> <https://spaceweather.gfz-potsdam.de/fileadmin/ruggero/Kp_forecast/forecast_figures/KP_FORECAST_CURRENT.png>
>  for today’s three-day GFZ Planetary K Index forecast updated every three
> hours.
>
> Click *here* <http://sidc.oma.be/products/meu/> for today's SIDC Daily
> Bulletin on Solar and Geomagnetic Activity updated at 1230Z daily.
>
> Click *here* <https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/forecast-discussion> for
> today's SWPC Solar Activity Forecast Discussion updated at 0030Z and
> 1230Z daily.
>
> Click *here* <https://www.sws.bom.gov.au/Space_Weather/1/1> for today's
> Australian Space Forecast Centre Summary and Forecast updated at 2330Z
> daily.
>
>
>
> Perhaps the most useful HF propagation pages for DXers can be found at:
>
> http://dx.qsl.net/propagation and http://www.solarham.net
>
>