[RSM] W3LPL prop forecast Fri/29 - Sun/30-

[Art Boyars]

Just in time for WPX CW.  Have fun!

73, Art K3KU/VE4VTR
=============================
From: donovanf at erols.com
To: PVRC Submissions <pvrc at mailman.qth.net>
Cc:
Bcc:
Date: Fri, 28 May 2021 01:04:05 -0400 (EDT)
Subject: [PVRC] Mostly normal propagation through Sunday

Long distance propagation forecast for Friday through Sunday May 28-30



My propagation forecast derived from today's NOAA/SWPC

web pages is published five days a week (M-F) in the Daily DX.



Low and mid-latitude propagation is likely to be normal through Sunday.



Propagation through the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely

to be mostly normal through Sunday.



Click *here* <https://services.swpc.noaa.gov/images/planetary-k-index.gif>
for today’s
latest planetary Kp Index, updated every three hours.

Click *here* <http://www.hamqsl.com/solar.html> for N0NBH’s current HF Band
Conditions, updated regularly.


The solar flux index (SFI) is likely to be about 85 through Sunday.

Active region 2824 has five small to intermediate sunspots that are

increasing MUFs. New active region 2826 has nine mostly

small sunspots that slightly increase MUFs.



160 and 80 meter short path propagation from North America to

VK/ZL and the south Pacific is likely to be normal through Sunday.

40 meter short path propagation to south Asia is likely to be

mostly normal at about 0015Z Saturday and Sunday. 40 meter

short path propagation from North America to east Asia after

about 0930Z is likely to be mostly normal through Sunday.



30 meter propagation through the auroral ovals and polar regions

is likely to be mostly normal through Sunday. 30 meter propagation

is always significantly degraded within a few hours of local noon

because of E-region blanketing of long distance F2 propagation.

30 meter night time propagation in the northern hemisphere

is likely to improve due to increased sunspot activity and longer

daylight duration.



20 meter daytime and evening propagation through the auroral ovals

and polar regions is likely to be mostly normal through Sunday.

20 meter northern transpolar propagation within a few hours of

sunrise and sunset is improving with increased sunspot activity.

20 meter night time long distance propagation in the northern

hemisphere is likely to improve due to increased sunspot activity

and longer daylight duration.



17 and 15 meter daytime long distance propagation in the northern

hemisphere is likely to improve due to increased sunspot activity

and longer daylight duration. 15, 12 and 10 meter daytime an

 evening long distance propagation is likely to be sporadically

enhanced by sporadic-E propagation through July.



Geomagnetic disturbances *caused by coronal hole high speed streams*

are likely to remain mostly brief, minor and somewhat less frequent

through at least late 2021. The southward oriented (-Bz) component

of the IMF plays a *crucial but unpredictable role* in triggering all

geomagnetic storms. Brief minor to moderate geomagnetic storms

may be gradually triggered when the IMF persists in a southward

orientation (-Bz) with enhanced IMF field strength for several hours

*coincident with* the effects of an earth directed *coronal hole high speed*

*stream*. More frequent, longer duration, minor to severe geomagnetic

storms may be triggered *suddenly* *and unpredictably *when the IMF

persists in a southward orientation (-Bz) with enhanced IMF field

strength for several hours or more *coincident with* the effects of an

earth directed CME.



IMF field strength, solar wind speed near earth and geomagnetic

activity are likely to be at ambient levels through Sunday. Earth

directed coronal high speed streams are not likely through Sunday.



Mid-latitude northern hemisphere sunset is now 65 minutes later

and daylength is 151 minutes longer than it was on the March 20th.

Daylength is increasing by just over one minute per day which is

slowly lengthening the duration of common daylight between

distant locations in the northern hemisphere. The elevation angle

of the midnight sun in the northern polar region is increasing about

three degrees per week, slowly improving 20 meter northern

trans-polar propagation through June.



Click *here* <https://www.spaceweather.gc.ca/solarflux/sx-4-en.php> for today’s
Penticton 10.7 cm solar flux index updated at 1700Z, 2000Z and 2300Z daily.

Click *here*
<https://spaceweather.gfz-potsdam.de/fileadmin/ruggero/Kp_forecast/forecast_figures/KP_FORECAST_CURRENT.png>
for today’s
three-day GFZ Planetary K Index forecast updated every three hours.

Click *here* <http://sidc.oma.be/products/meu/> for today's SIDC Daily
Bulletin on Solar and Geomagnetic Activity updated at 1230Z daily.

Click *here* <https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/forecast-discussion>
for today's
SWPC Solar Activity Forecast Discussion updated at 0030Z and 1230Z daily.

Click *here* <https://www.sws.bom.gov.au/Space_Weather/1/1> for today's
Australian Space Forecast Centre Summary and Forecast updated at 2330Z
daily.


Perhaps the most useful HF propagation pages for DXers can be found at:
http://dx.qsl.net/propagation and http://www.solarham.net