[RSM] W3LPL: Mostly normal until late Tuesday

[Art Boyars]

From: donovanf at erols.com
To: PVRC <pvrc at mailman.qth.net>
Cc:
Bcc:
Date: Mon, 15 Nov 2021 01:46:47 -0500 (EST)
Subject: [PVRC] Propagation is likely to be mostly normal until late Tuesday

My propagation forecast derived from today's NOAA/SWPC web pages
is published five days a week (M-F) in the Daily DX. All days and times in
this forecast are in UTC (Zulu) time.

Propagation crossing low and mid latitudes is likely to be normal through
Tuesday.

Propagation crossing the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely to be
mostly normal until late Tuesday.

Click *here* <https://services.swpc.noaa.gov/images/planetary-k-index.gif>
for today’s
latest planetary Kp Index, updated every three hours. Click *here*
<http://www.hamqsl.com/solar.html> for N0NBH’s current HF Band Conditions,
updated regularly.

The solar flux index (SFI) is likely to be about 79 through Tuesday. There
are two active regions on the visible disk with three small sunspots.
https://sdo.gsfc.nasa.gov/assets/img/latest/latest_1024_0171.jpg

160 and 80 meter propagation from North America to VK/ZL and the south
Pacific is likely to be normal through Tuesday. 160 and 80 meter
propagation from North America to Asia is likely to be mostly normal until
late Tuesday.

40 meter short path propagation from North America to south Asia is likely
to be mostly normal until late Tuesday. 40 meter short path propagation
from North America to east Asia after about 0730Z is likely to be mostly
normal through Tuesday.

30 meter propagation through the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely
to be mostly normal until late Tuesday. 30 meter propagation is always
significantly degraded within a few hours of local noon because of E-region
blanketing of long distance F2 propagation.

20 meter daytime and evening propagation through the auroral ovals and
polar regions is likely to be mostly normal until late Tuesday. 20 meter
transpolar propagation within a few hours of sunrise and sunset is likely
to be mostly normal until late Tuesday.

17, and 15 meter long distance propagation is likely to be mostly normal
until late Tuesday. 12 and 10 meter long distance propagation is likely to
be unreliable and shorter in duration due to diminished sunspot activity.

Geomagnetic disturbances *caused by CME and coronal hole high* *speed
stream* effects are likely to remain mostly brief, minor and somewhat less
frequent through at least late 2021. Persistent southward orientation (-Bz)
of the north-south component of the interplanetary magnetic field (IMF)
plays a *crucial but unpredictable role* in triggering all geomagnetic
storms. Brief minor to moderate geomagnetic storms may be gradually
triggered when the IMF persists in a southward orientation (-Bz) with
enhanced IMF field strength for several hours *coincident with* the effects
of an Earth directed *coronal hole high speed* *stream*. More frequent,
longer duration, minor to severe geomagnetic storms may be triggered
*suddenly* *and unpredictably *when the IMF persists in a southward
orientation (-Bz) with enhanced IMF field strength for several hours or
more *coincident with* the effects of an Earth directed fast CME. Real time
geomagnetic data including Bz orientation are available here:
www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/geospace-geomagnetic-activity-plot

Solar wind speed is likely to be mostly near background levels until late
Tuesday with possible isolated enhanced solar wind conditions late Tuesday
due to coronal hole high speed stream effects.

The geomagnetic field is likely to be mostly quiet until late Tuesday with
a chance of isolated active intervals late Tuesday due to coronal hole high
speed stream effects.

Mid-latitude northern hemisphere sunset is 70 minutes earlier and daylength
is 125 minutes shorter than it was on September 22nd. Daytime ionization
and residual nighttime ionization in the northern polar region is rapidly
declining due to steadily increasing polar night effects.

Click *here* <https://www.spaceweather.gc.ca/solarflux/sx-4-en.php> for today’s
Penticton 10.7 cm solar flux index updated at 1700Z, 2000Z and 2300Z daily.
Click *here*
<https://spaceweather.gfz-potsdam.de/fileadmin/ruggero/Kp_forecast/forecast_figures/KP_FORECAST_CURRENT.png>
for today’s
three-day GFZ Planetary K Index forecast updated every three hours. Click
*here* <http://sidc.oma.be/products/meu/> for today's SIDC Daily Bulletin
on Solar and Geomagnetic Activity updated at 1230Z daily. Click *here*
<https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/forecast-discussion> for today's SWPC
Solar Activity Forecast Discussion updated at 0030Z and 1230Z daily. Click
*here* <https://www.sws.bom.gov.au/Space_Weather/1/1> for today's
Australian Space Forecast Centre Summary and Forecast updated at 2330Z
daily.

Perhaps the most useful HF propagation pages for DXers can be found at:
http://dx.qsl.net/propagation and http://www.solarham.net