[RSM] W3LPL: Maybe below normal DX during SS SSB

[Art Boyars]

That's how I read it.No direct info on propagation from the Canadian
Prairie to the W/VE population centers.  I'll be looking for you guys in SS.

73, Art K3KU

From: donovanf at erols.com

To: PVRC <pvrc at mailman.qth.net>
Cc:
Bcc:
Date: Fri, 19 Nov 2021 01:12:53 -0500 (EST)
Subject: [PVRC] Mostly normal propagation with possible below normal
intervals from mid-day Saturday through Sunday and mildly depressed MUFs
due to very low solar ionizing radiation through Sunday

My propagation forecast derived from today's NOAA/SWPC web pages
is published five days a week (M-F) in the Daily DX. All days and times in
this forecast are in UTC (Zulu) time.

Propagation crossing low and mid latitudes is likely to be normal with
mildly depressed MUFs due to very low solar ionizing radiation through
Sunday.

Propagation crossing the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely to be
mostly normal with possible below normal intervals from mid-day Saturday
through Sunday and mildly depressed MUFs due to very low solar ionizing
radiation through Sunday.

Click *here* <https://services.swpc.noaa.gov/images/planetary-k-index.gif>
for today’s
latest planetary Kp Index, updated every three hours. Click *here*
<http://www.hamqsl.com/solar.html> for N0NBH’s current HF Band Conditions,
updated regularly.

The solar flux index (SFI) is likely to be about 80 through Sunday. There
are two active regions on the visible disk with two small sunspots.
https://sdo.gsfc.nasa.gov/assets/img/latest/latest_1024_0171.jpg

160 and 80 meter propagation from North America to VK/ZL and the south
Pacific is likely to be normal through Sunday. 160 and 80 meter propagation
from North America to Asia is likely to be mostly normal with possible
below normal intervals from mid-day Saturday through Sunday.

40 meter short path propagation from North America to south Asia is likely
to be mostly normal with possible below normal intervals from mid-day
Saturday through Sunday. 40 meter short path propagation from North America
to east Asia after about 0730Z is likely to be mostly normal with possible
below normal intervals on Sunday.

30 meter propagation through the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely
to be mostly normal with possible below normal intervals from mid-day
Saturday through Sunday. 30 meter propagation is always significantly
degraded within a few hours of local noon because of E-region blanketing of
long distance F2 propagation.

20 meter daytime and evening propagation through the auroral ovals and
polar regions is likely to be mostly normal with possible below normal
intervals from mid-day Saturday through Sunday. 20 meter transpolar
propagation within a few hours of sunrise and sunset is likely to be mostly
normal with possible below normal intervals from mid-day Saturday through
Sunday.

17 and 15 meter long distance propagation is likely to be mostly normal
with possible below normal intervals from mid-day Saturday through Sunday.
12 and 10 meter long distance propagation is likely to be unreliable and
shorter in duration due to very low solar ionizing radiation through Sunday.

Geomagnetic disturbances *caused by CME and coronal hole high* *speed
stream* effects are likely to remain mostly brief, minor and somewhat less
frequent through at least late 2021. Persistent southward orientation (-Bz)
of the north-south component of the interplanetary magnetic field (IMF)
plays a *crucial but unpredictable* *role* in triggering all geomagnetic
storms. Brief minor to moderate geomagnetic storms may be gradually
triggered when the IMF persists in a southward orientation (-Bz) with
enhanced IMF field strength for several hours *coincident with* the effects
of an Earth directed *coronal* *hole high speed stream*. More frequent,
longer duration, minor to severe geomagnetic storms may be triggered
*suddenly* *and unpredictably *when the IMF persists in a southward
orientation (-Bz) with enhanced IMF field strength for several hours or
more *coincident with* the effects of an Earth directed fast CME. Real time
geomagnetic data including Bz orientation are available here:
www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/geospace-geomagnetic-activity-plot

Solar wind conditions are likely to be near background levels through mid-day
Saturday, degrading to elevated conditions due to coronal hole high speed
stream effects from mid-day Saturday through Sunday.

The geomagnetic field is likely to be mostly quiet through mid-day Saturday,
with likely active intervals from mid-day Saturday through Sunday.

Mid-latitude northern hemisphere sunset is 74 minutes earlier and daylength
is 134 minutes shorter than it was on September 22nd. Daytime ionization
and residual nighttime ionization in the northern polar region is very
low due to polar night effects and very low levels of solar ionizing
radiation.

Click *here* <https://www.spaceweather.gc.ca/solarflux/sx-4-en.php> for today’s
Penticton 10.7 cm solar flux index updated at 1700Z, 2000Z and 2300Z daily.
Click *here*
<https://spaceweather.gfz-potsdam.de/fileadmin/ruggero/Kp_forecast/forecast_figures/KP_FORECAST_CURRENT.png>
for today’s
three-day GFZ Planetary K Index forecast updated every three hours. Click
*here* <http://sidc.oma.be/products/meu/> for today's SIDC Daily Bulletin
on Solar and Geomagnetic Activity updated at 1230Z daily. Click *here*
<https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/forecast-discussion> for today's SWPC
Solar Activity Forecast Discussion updated at 0030Z and 1230Z daily. Click
*here* <https://www.sws.bom.gov.au/Space_Weather/1/1> for today's
Australian Space Forecast Centre Summary and Forecast updated at 2330Z
daily.

Perhaps the most useful HF propagation pages for DXers can be found at:
http://dx.qsl.net/propagation and http://www.solarham.net