[RSM] W3LPL: Mostly normal thru Tues/5

[Art Boyars]

From: Frank W3LPL <donovanf at starpower.net>
To: PVRC <pvrc at mailman.qth.net>
Cc:
Bcc:
Date: Mon, 4 Apr 2022 02:35:40 -0400 (EDT)
Subject: [PVRC] Propagation is likely to be mostly normal through Tuesday

My propagation forecast derived from today's NOAA/SWPC web pages
is published five days a week (M-F) in the Daily DX. All days and times in
this forecast are in UTC (Zulu) time.

Propagation crossing low and mid latitudes is likely to be normal through
Tuesday.

Propagation crossing the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely to be
mostly normal through Tuesday.

Click *here* <https://services.swpc.noaa.gov/images/planetary-k-index.gif>
for today’s
latest planetary Kp Index, updated every three hours. Click *here*
<http://www.hamqsl.com/solar.html> for N0NBH’s current HF Band Conditions,
updated regularly.

Today’s solar flux index (SFI) is 140 and is forecast to decline to about
120 on Tuesday. There are eight active regions on the Earth facing disk
containing 48 tiny, small and mid-sized sunspots.
https://sdo.gsfc.nasa.gov/assets/img/latest/latest_1024_0171.jpg

160 and 80 meter propagation from North America to VK/ZL and the south
Pacific is likely to be normal through Tuesday. 160 and 80 meter
propagation to Asia is likely to be mostly normal through Tuesday.

40 meter short path propagation from North America to south Asia at about
0100Z Tuesday is likely to be mostly normal. Short path propagation from
North America to east Asia after about 0900Z is likely to be mostly normal
through Tuesday.

30 meter propagation through the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely
to be mostly normal through Tuesday. 30 meter propagation is always
significantly degraded within a few hours of local noon because of E-region
blanketing of long distance F2 propagation.

20 meter daytime and evening propagation through the auroral ovals and
polar regions is likely to be mostly normal through Tuesday. 20 meter
transpolar propagation within a few hours of sunrise and sunset likely to
be mostly normal through Tuesday.

17 and 15 meter long distance propagation likely to be mostly normal through
Tuesday.

12 and 10 meter long distance propagation likely to be mostly normal through
Tuesday.

Geomagnetic disturbances *caused by CME and coronal hole high speed*
*stream* effects are likely to remain mostly brief, minor and somewhat less
frequent through at least early 2022. Persistent southward orientation
(-Bz) of the north-south component of the interplanetary magnetic field
(IMF) plays a *crucial but unpredictable role* in triggering all
geomagnetic storms. Brief minor to moderate geomagnetic storms may be
gradually triggered when the IMF persists in a southward orientation (-Bz)
with IMF field strength of about 5 nanoteslas for several hours *coincident
with* the effects of an Earth directed *coronal hole high speed stream*.
More frequent, longer duration, minor to severe geomagnetic storms may be
triggered *suddenly* *and* *unpredictably *when the IMF persists in a
southward orientation (-Bz) with IMF field strength significantly stronger
than 5 nanoteslas for several hours or more *coincident with* the effects
of an Earth directed fast CME. Real time geomagnetic data including Bz
orientation and IMF field strength are available here:
www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/geospace-geomagnetic-activity-plot

Solar wind speed is likely to be mildly enhanced on Monday due to CME and
coronal hole high speed stream effects, gradually improving as CME and CH
HSS effects gradually wane on Tuesday. Radio blackouts are possible on the
sun facing side of the Earth on Monday due to possible M-class solar flares
with a slight chance of an X-class solar flare.

The geomagnetic field is likely to be quiet to unsettled through Tuesday.
We are in the more geomagnetically active equinox season when active and
geomagnetic storm conditions are about twice as likely as during the
solstice seasons.

Mid-latitude northern hemisphere sunset is 14 minutes later and day length
is 38 minutes longer than it was on March 20th.

Click *here* <https://www.spaceweather.gc.ca/solarflux/sx-4-en.php> for today’s
Penticton 10.7 cm solar flux index updated at 1700Z, 2000Z and 2300Z daily.
Click *here*
<https://spaceweather.gfz-potsdam.de/fileadmin/ruggero/Kp_forecast/forecast_figures/KP_FORECAST_CURRENT.png>
for today’s
three-day GFZ Planetary K Index forecast updated every three hours. Click
*here* <http://sidc.oma.be/products/meu/> for today's SIDC Daily Bulletin
on Solar and Geomagnetic Activity updated at 1230Z daily. Click *here*
<https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/forecast-discussion> for today's SWPC
Solar Activity Forecast Discussion updated at 0030Z and 1230Z daily. Click
*here* <https://www.sws.bom.gov.au/Space_Weather/1/1> for today's
Australian Space Forecast Centre Summary and Forecast updated at 2330Z
daily.

Perhaps the most useful HF propagation pages for DXers can be found at:
http://dx.qsl.net/propagation and http://www.solarham.net