[RSM] W3LPL: Maybe some below normal thru Thurs/7

[Art Boyars]

From: Frank W3LPL <donovanf at starpower.net>
To: PVRC <pvrc at mailman.qth.net>
Cc:
Bcc:
Date: Wed, 6 Apr 2022 01:35:39 -0400 (EDT)
Subject: [PVRC] Propagation is likely to be mostly normal with possible
below normal intervals through Thursday

My propagation forecast derived from today's NOAA/SWPC web pages
is published five days a week (M-F) in the Daily DX. All days and times in
this forecast are in UTC (Zulu) time.

Propagation crossing low and mid latitudes is likely to be mostly normal on
Wednesday and normal on Thursday.

Propagation crossing the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely to be
mostly normal with possible below normal intervals through Thursday.

Click *here* <https://services.swpc.noaa.gov/images/planetary-k-index.gif>
for today’s
latest planetary Kp Index, updated every three hours. Click *here*
<http://www.hamqsl.com/solar.html> for N0NBH’s current HF Band Conditions,
updated regularly.=

Today’s solar flux index (SFI) is 122 and forecast to remain at about 122
on Thursday. There are five active regions on the Earth facing disk
containing 25 tiny and small sunspots.
https://sdo.gsfc.nasa.gov/assets/img/latest/latest_1024_0171.jpg

160 and 80 meter propagation from North America to VK/ZL and the south
Pacific is likely to be mostly normal on Wednesday and normal on Thursday.
160 and 80 meter propagation to Asia is mostly normal with possible below
normal intervals through Thursday.

40 meter short path propagation from North America to south Asia at about
0100Z Thursday is likely to be mostly below normal. Short path propagation
from North America to east Asia after about 0900Z is likely to be mostly
normal with possible below normal intervals through Thursday.

30 meter propagation through the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely
to be mostly normal with possible below normal intervals through Thursday.
30 meter propagation is always significantly degraded within a few hours of
local noon because of E-region blanketing of long distance F2 propagation.

20 meter daytime and evening propagation through the auroral ovals and
polar regions is likely to be mostly normal with possible below normal
intervals through Thursday. 20 meter transpolar propagation within a few
hours of sunrise and sunset likely to be mostly normal with possible below
normal intervals through Thursday.

17 and 15 meter long distance propagation likely to be mostly normal with
possible below normal intervals through Thursday.

12 and 10 meter long distance propagation likely to be mostly normal with
possible below normal intervals through Thursday.

Geomagnetic disturbances *caused by CME and coronal hole high speed*
*stream* effects are likely to remain mostly brief, minor and somewhat less
frequent through at least early 2022. Persistent southward orientation
(-Bz) of the north-south component of the interplanetary magnetic field
(IMF) plays a *crucial but unpredictable role* in triggering all
geomagnetic storms. Brief minor to moderate geomagnetic storms may be
gradually triggered when the IMF persists in a southward orientation (-Bz)
with IMF field strength of about 5 nanoteslas for several hours *coincident
with* the effects of an Earth directed *coronal* *hole high speed stream*.
More frequent, longer duration, minor to severe geomagnetic storms may be
triggered *suddenly* *and unpredictably* when the IMF persists in a
southward orientation (-Bz) with IMF field strength significantly stronger
than 5 nanoteslas for several hours or more *coincident with* the effects
of an Earth directed fast CME. Real time geomagnetic data including Bz
orientation and IMF field strength are available here:
www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/geospace-geomagnetic-activity-plot

Solar wind speed is likely to be elevated through Thursday due to CME
effects. There is a slight chance of minor radio blackouts on the sun
facing side of the Earth through Thursday.

The geomagnetic field is likely to be mostly unsettled to active through
Thursday, with possible minor storm levels from mid day Wednesday through
mid day Thursday We are in the more geomagnetically active equinox season
when active and geomagnetic storm conditions are about twice as likely as
during the solstice seasons.

Mid-latitude northern hemisphere sunset is 16 minutes later and day length
is 43 minutes longer than it was on March 20th.

Click *here* <https://www.spaceweather.gc.ca/solarflux/sx-4-en.php> for today’s
Penticton 10.7 cm solar flux index updated at 1700Z, 2000Z and 2300Z daily.
Click *here*
<https://spaceweather.gfz-potsdam.de/fileadmin/ruggero/Kp_forecast/forecast_figures/KP_FORECAST_CURRENT.png>
for today’s
three-day GFZ Planetary K Index forecast updated every three hours. Click
*here* <http://sidc.oma.be/products/meu/> for today's SIDC Daily Bulletin
on Solar and Geomagnetic Activity updated at 1230Z daily. Click *here*
<https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/forecast-discussion> for today's SWPC
Solar Activity Forecast Discussion updated at 0030Z and 1230Z daily. Click
*here* <https://www.sws.bom.gov.au/Space_Weather/1/1> for today's
Australian Space Forecast Centre Summary and Forecast updated at 2330Z
daily.

Perhaps the most useful HF propagation pages for DXers can be found at:
http://dx.qsl.net/propagation and http://www.solarham.net