[RSM] W3LPL: Mostly normal thru Wed/10

[Art Boyars]

From: Frank W3LPL <donovanf at starpower.net>
To: PVRC <pvrc at mailman.qth.net>
Cc:
Bcc:
Date: Tue, 9 Aug 2022 02:36:17 -0400 (EDT)
Subject: [PVRC] Propagation is likely to be mostly normal through Wednesday

My propagation forecast derived from today's NOAA/SWPC web pages
is published five days a week (M-F) in the Daily DX. All days and times in
this forecast are in UTC (Zulu) time.

Propagation crossing low and mid-latitudes is likely to be normal.

Propagation crossing the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely to be
mostly normal with a chance of mild degradations at high latitudes through
late Tuesday.

Click *here* <https://services.swpc.noaa.gov/images/planetary-k-index.gif>
for today’s
latest planetary Kp Index, updated every three hours.

Click *here* <http://www.hamqsl.com/solar.html> for N0NBH’s current HF Band
Conditions, updated regularly.
Today's solar flux index (SFI) is 113 and remain about the same on
Wednesday. The sun’s visible disk has five active regions with 13 mostly
tiny sunspots.
https://www.sidc.be/spaceweatherservices/applications/solarmap

160 and 80 meter propagation from North America to VK/ZL and the
south Pacific is likely to be normal. 160 and 80 meter propagation to Asia
is likely to be mostly normal with a chance of mild degradations at high
latitudes during Tuesday.

40 meter short path propagation from North America to south Asia at about
0000Z is likely to be mostly normal. Short path propagation from
North America to east Asia after about 1000Z is likely to be mostly normal
with a chance of mild degradations at high latitudes during Tuesday

30 meter propagation through the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely
to be mostly normal with a chance of mild degradations at high latitudes
during Tuesday. 30 meter propagation is always significantly degraded
within a few hours of local noon because of E-region blanketing of long
distance F2 propagation.

20 meter daytime and evening propagation through the auroral ovals
and polar regions is likely to be mostly normal with a chance of mild
degradations at high latitudes during Tuesday. 20 meter transpolar
propagation within a few hours of sunrise and sunset is likely to be mostly
normal with a chance of mild degradations at high latitudes during Tuesday.
Long distance 20 meter propagation during daylight hours may be severely
degraded by F1 region and sporadic-E blanketing of propagation via the F2
region.

17 and 15 meter long distance propagation is likely to be mostly normal
with a chance of mild degradations at high latitudes during Tuesday.

12 and 10 meter long distance propagation is likely to be mostly normal
with a chance of mild degradations at high latitudes during Tuesday. 12 and
10 meter F2 propagation crossing northern hemisphere mid-latitudes is
likely to be poor due to seasonally depressed MUFs through late summer.
Transatlantic sporadic-E propagation remains possible from mid-morning to
mid-afternoon in North America.

Geomagnetic disturbances caused by CME and coronal hole high speed stream
effects are likely to remain mostly brief, minor and somewhat less frequent
through at least mid-2022. Persistent southward orientation (-Bz) of the
north-south component of the interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) plays a
crucial but unpredictable role in triggering all geomagnetic storms. Brief
minor to moderate geomagnetic storms may be gradually triggered when the
IMF persists in a southward orientation (-Bz) with IMF field strength of
about 5 nanoteslas for several hours coincident with the effects of an
Earth directed coronal hole high speed stream. More frequent, longer
duration, minor to severe geomagnetic storms may be triggered suddenly and
unpredictably when the IMF persists in a southward orientation (-Bz) with
IMF field strength significantly stronger than 5 nanoteslas for several
hours or more coincident with the effects of an Earth directed fast CME.
Real time geomagnetic data including Bz orientation and IMF field
strength are available here:
www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/geospace-geomagnetic-activity-plot

Solar wind parameters are likely to be strongly elevated through late
Tuesday due to the effects of  multiple coronal hole high speed streams.

The geomagnetic field is likely to be mostly unsettled to active and a
chance of isolated minor storm conditions due to the effects of  multiple
coronal hole high speed streams, improving to mostly quiet after mid-day
Wednesday.

Mid-latitude northern hemisphere sunset is 26 minutes earlier and day
length is 59 minutes shorter than it was on June 21st.

Click *here* <https://www.spaceweather.gc.ca/solarflux/sx-4-en.php> for today’s
Penticton 10.7 cm solar flux index updated at 1800Z, 2000Z and 2200Z daily.

Click *here*
<https://spaceweather.gfz-potsdam.de/fileadmin/ruggero/Kp_forecast/forecast_figures/KP_FORECAST_CURRENT.png>
for today’s
three-day GFZ Planetary K Index forecast updated every three hours.

Click *here* <http://sidc.oma.be/products/meu/> for today's SIDC Daily
Bulletin on Solar and Geomagnetic Activity updated at 1230Z daily.

Click *here* <https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/forecast-discussion>
for today's
SWPC Solar Activity Forecast Discussion updated at 0030Z and 1230Z daily.

Click *here* <https://www.sws.bom.gov.au/Space_Weather/1/1> for today's
Australian Space Forecast Centre Summary and Forecast updated at 2330Z daily

Perhaps the most useful HF propagation pages for DXers can be found at:
http://dx.qsl.net/propagation and http://www.solarham.net