[RSM] W3LPL: Mostly normal thru Thurs/11

[Art Boyars]

(This one slipped into my Gmail "Promotions" folder.  I'd be happy to learn
how to keep that from happening. -- Art K3KU/VE4VTR)


From: Frank W3LPL <donovanf at starpower.net>
To: PVRC <pvrc at mailman.qth.net>
Cc:
Bcc:
Date: Wed, 10 Aug 2022 01:16:23 -0400 (EDT)
Subject: [PVRC] Propagation is likely to be mostly normal through Thursday

My propagation forecast derived from today's NOAA/SWPC web pages
is published five days a week (M-F) in the Daily DX. All days and times in
this forecast are in UTC (Zulu) time.

Propagation crossing low and mid-latitudes is likely to be normal.

Propagation crossing the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely to be
mostly normal with a chance of mild degradations at high latitudes through
Wednesday.

Click https://services.swpc.noaa.gov/images/planetary-k-index.gif for today's
latest estimated planetary Kp Index, updated every three hours.

Click http://www.hamqsl.com/solar.html for N0NBH's current HF
Band Conditions, updated regularly.

Today's solar flux index (SFI) is 109 and likely to decline slightly on
Thursday. The sun’s visible disk has five active regions with five mostly
tiny sunspots.
https://www.sidc.be/spaceweatherservices/applications/solarmap

160 and 80 meter propagation from North America to VK/ZL and the
south Pacific is likely to be normal. 160 and 80 meter propagation to Asia
is likely to be mostly normal with a chance of mild degradations at high
latitudes during Wednesday.

40 meter short path propagation from North America to south Asia at about
0000Z is likely to be mostly normal. Short path propagation from
North America to east Asia after about 1000Z is likely to be mostly normal
with a chance of mild degradations at high latitudes during Wednesday.

30 meter propagation through the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely
to be mostly normal with a chance of mild degradations at high latitudes
during Wednesday. 30 meter propagation is always significantly degraded
within a few hours of local noon because of E-region blanketing of long
distance F2 propagation.

20 meter daytime and evening propagation through the auroral ovals
and polar regions is likely to be mostly normal with a chance o mild
degradations at high latitudes during Wednesday. 20 meter transpolar
propagation within a few hours of sunrise and sunset is likely to be mostly
normal with a chance of mild degradations at high latitudes during
Wednesday. Long distance 20 meter propagation during daylight hours may be
severely degraded by F1 region and sporadic-E blanketing of propagation via
the F2 region.

17 and 15 meter long distance propagation is likely to be mostly normal
with a chance of mild degradations at high latitudes during Wednesday.

12 and 10 meter long distance propagation is likely to be mostly normal
with a chance of mild degradations at high latitudes during Wednesday. 12
and 10 meter F2 propagation crossing northern hemisphere mid latitudes is
likely to be poor due to seasonally depressed MUFs through late summer.
Transatlantic sporadic-E propagation remains possible from mid-morning to
mid-afternoon in North America.

Geomagnetic disturbances caused by CME and coronal hole high speed stream
effects are likely to remain mostly brief, minor and somewhat less frequent
through at least mid-2022. Persistent southward orientation (-Bz) of the
north-south component of the interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) plays a
crucial but unpredictable role in triggering all geomagnetic storms. Brief
minor to moderate geomagnetic storms may be gradually triggered when the
IMF persists in a southward orientation (-Bz) with IMF field strength of
about 5 nanoteslas for several hours coincident with the effects of an
Earth directed coronal hole high speed stream. More frequent, longer
duration, minor to severe geomagnetic storms may be triggered suddenly and
unpredictably when the IMF persists in a southward orientation (-Bz) with
IMF field strength significantly stronger than 5 nanoteslas for several
hours or more coincident with the effects of an Earth directed fast CME.
Real time geomagnetic data including Bz orientation and IMF field
strength are available here:
www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/geospace-geomagnetic-activity-plot

Solar wind parameters are likely to be strongly elevated through Wednesday
due to the effects of  multiple coronal hole high speed streams.

The geomagnetic field is likely to be mostly unsettled to active and a
chance of isolated minor storm conditions due to the effects of  multiple
coronal hole high speed streams, improving to mostly quiet early Thursday.

Mid-latitude northern hemisphere sunset is 27 minutes earlier and day
length is 62 minutes shorter than it was on June 21st.

Click
https://www.spaceweather.gc.ca/forecast-prevision/solar-solaire/solarflux/sx-5-flux-en.php
for the Penticton 10.7 cm solar flux index.

Click
https://spaceweather.gfz-potsdam.de/fileadmin/ruggero/Kp_forecast/forecast_figures/KP_FORECAST_CURRENT.png

for today's three-day GFZ Planetary K Index forecast updated every three
hours.

Click
https://wwwbis.sidc.be/spaceweatherservices/data/ClassicalRWCproducts/meu/
for today's SIDC Daily Bulletin on Solar and Geomagnetic Activity updated
at 1230Z daily.

Click https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/forecast-discussion for today's
SWPC Solar Activity Forecast Discussion updated at 0030Z and 1230Z daily.

Click https://www.sws.bom.gov.au/Space_Weather/1/1 for today's Australian
Space Forecast Centre Summary and Forecast updated at 2330Z daily

Perhaps the most useful HF propagation pages for DXers can be found at:
http://dx.qsl.net/propagation and http://www.solarham.net