[RSM] W3LPL: Maybe below normal after mid-day Wed/17

[Art Boyars]

Sorry I missed the forecast for Mom - Tue.  Here's one that arrived in
the middle of last night. -- Art K3KU


From: Frank W3LPL <donovanf at starpower.net>
To: PVRC <pvrc at mailman.qth.net>
Cc:
Bcc:
Date: Tue, 16 Aug 2022 01:40:20 -0400 (EDT)
Subject: [PVRC] Propagation is likely to be mostly normal possibly
degrading to mostly below normal after mid-day Wednesday

My propagation forecast derived from today's NOAA/SWPC web pages
is published five days a week (M-F) in the Daily DX. All days and times in
this forecast are in UTC (Zulu) time.

Propagation crossing low latitudes is likely to be normal with possible
below normal intervals after mid-day Wednesday.

Propagation crossing mid-latitudes is likely to be normal with below normal
periods after mid-day Wednesday.

Propagation crossing the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely to be
mostly normal with persistent below normal periods after mid-day Wednesday.

Click *here* <https://services.swpc.noaa.gov/images/planetary-k-index.gif>
for today’s
latest planetary Kp Index, updated every three hours.

Click *here* <http://www.hamqsl.com/solar.html> for N0NBH’s current HF Band
Conditions, updated regularly

Today's solar flux index (SFI) is 131 and is likely to remain unchanged
through Wednesday. The sun’s visible disk has five small to medium sized
active regions containing 42 sunspots with a total area of 740
micro-hemispheres (µhems).
https://www.sidc.be/spaceweatherservices/applications/solarmap

160 and 80 meter propagation from North America to VK/ZL and the
south Pacific is likely to be normal with possible below normal intervals
after mid-day Wednesday. 160 and 80 meter propagation to Asia is likely to
be mostly normal with persistent below normal periods after mid-day
Wednesday.

40 meter short path propagation from North America to south Asia at about
0000Z is likely to be mostly normal. Short path propagation from
North America to east Asia after about 0930Z is likely to be mostly normal
with persistent below normal periods after mid-day Wednesday.

30 meter propagation through the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely
to be mostly normal with persistent below normal periods after mid-day
Wednesday. 30 meter propagation is always significantly degraded within a
few hours of local noon because of E-region blanketing of long distance F2
propagation.

20 meter daytime and evening propagation through the auroral ovals
and polar regions is likely to be mostly normal with persistent below
normal periods after mid-day Wednesday. 20 meter transpolar propagation
within a few hours of sunrise and sunset is likely to be mostly normal with
persistent below normal periods after mid-day Wednesday. Long distance 20
meter propagation during daylight hours may be severely degraded by F1
region and sporadic-E blanketing of propagation via the F2 region.

17 and 15 meter long distance propagation is likely to be mostly normal
with persistent below normal periods after mid-day Wednesday. Transatlantic
sporadic-E propagation remains possible from mid-morning to mid-afternoon
in North America.

12 and 10 meter long distance propagation is likely to be mostly normal
with persistent below normal periods after mid-day Wednesday. 12 and 10
meter F2 propagation crossing northern hemisphere mid latitudes is likely
to be poor due to seasonally depressed F2 MUFs through late summer.
Transatlantic sporadic-E propagation remains possible from mid-morning to
mid-afternoon in North America.

Geomagnetic disturbances caused by CME and coronal hole high speed stream
effects are likely to remain mostly brief, minor and somewhat less frequent
through at least mid-2022. Persistent southward orientation (-Bz) of the
north-south component of the interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) plays a
crucial but unpredictable role in triggering all geomagnetic storms. Brief
minor to moderate geomagnetic storms may be gradually triggered when the
IMF persists in a southward orientation (-Bz) with IMF field strength of
about 5 nanoteslas for several hours coincident with the effects of an
Earth directed coronal hole high speed stream. More frequent, longer
duration, minor to severe geomagnetic storms may be triggered suddenly and
unpredictably when the IMF persists in a southward orientation (-Bz) with
IMF field strength significantly stronger than 5 nanoteslas for several
hours or more coincident with the effects of an Earth directed fast CME.
Real time geomagnetic data including Bz orientation and IMF field
strength are available here:
www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/geospace-geomagnetic-activity-plot

Solar wind parameters are likely be near background levels then becoming
moderately enhanced after mid-day Wednesday due to coronal hole high speed
stream effects. There is a chance of moderate radio blackouts and a slight
chance of strong radio blackouts due to coronal hole high speed stream
effects.

The geomagnetic field is likely to be mostly quiet with probable active to
minor geomagnetic storm conditions after mid-day Wednesday.

Mid-latitude northern hemisphere sunset is 36 minutes earlier and day
length is 77 minutes shorter than it was on June 21st.

Click *here* <https://www.spaceweather.gc.ca/solarflux/sx-4-en.php> for today’s
Penticton 10.7 cm solar flux index updated at 1800Z, 2000Z and 2200Z daily.

Click *here*
<https://spaceweather.gfz-potsdam.de/fileadmin/ruggero/Kp_forecast/forecast_figures/KP_FORECAST_CURRENT.png>
for today’s
three-day GFZ Planetary K Index forecast updated every three hours.

Click *here* <http://sidc.oma.be/products/meu/> for today's SIDC Daily
Bulletin on Solar and Geomagnetic Activity updated at 1230Z daily.

Click *here* <https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/forecast-discussion>
for today's
SWPC Solar Activity Forecast Discussion updated at 0030Z and 1230Z daily.

Click *here* <https://www.sws.bom.gov.au/Space_Weather/1/1> for today's
Australian Space Forecast Centre Summary and Forecast updated at 2330Z
daily.
Perhaps the most useful HF propagation pages for DXers can be found at:
http://dx.qsl.net/propagation and http://www.solarham.net