[RSM] W3LPL: Up and down thru Friday

[Art Boyars]

(Sorry for the delay; busy day Thursday, ending with having to get my
plumbing snake unstuck from the pipe at my daughter's house. -- K3KU/VE4VTR)

From: Frank W3LPL <donovanf at starpower.net>

To: PVRC <pvrc at mailman.qth.net>
Cc:
Bcc:
Date: Thu, 18 Aug 2022 01:45:22 -0400 (EDT)
Subject: [PVRC] Propagation is likely to be mostly normal with persistent
below normal periods through Friday

My propagation forecast derived from today's NOAA/SWPC web pages
is published five days a week (M-F) in the Daily DX. All days and times in
this forecast are in UTC (Zulu) time.

Propagation crossing low latitudes is likely to be mostly normal with
possible below normal periods improving to normal after mid-day Friday.

Propagation crossing mid-latitudes is likely to be mostly normal with below
normal periods improving to improving to mostly normal after mid-day Friday.

Propagation crossing the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely to be
mostly normal but with persistent below normal periods through mid-day
Friday.

Click *here* <https://services.swpc.noaa.gov/images/planetary-k-index.gif>
for today’s
latest planetary Kp Index, updated every three hours.

Click *here* <http://www.hamqsl.com/solar.html> for N0NBH’s current HF Band
Conditions, updated regularly.
Today's solar flux index (SFI) is 123 and is likely to remain unchanged
through Friday. The sun’s visible disk has five small to medium sized
active regions containing 33 sunspots with a total area of 530
micro-hemispheres (about three Earth diameters).
https://www.sidc.be/spaceweatherservices/applications/solarmap

160 and 80 meter propagation from North America to VK/ZL and the
south Pacific is likely to be mostly normal with possible below normal
periods. 160 and 80 meter propagation to Asia is likely to be mostly normal
but with persistent below normal periods through at least mid-day Friday.

40 meter short path propagation from North America to south Asia at about
0000Z is likely to be mostly normal but with persistent below normal
periods through at least mid-day Friday. Short path propagation from
North America to east Asia after about 1000Z is likely to be mostly normal
but with persistent below normal periods through at least mid-day Friday.

30 meter propagation through the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely
to be mostly normal but with persistent below normal periods through at
least mid-day Friday. 30 meter propagation is always significantly degraded
within a few hours of local noon because of E-region blanketing of long
distance F2 propagation.

20 meter daytime and evening propagation through the auroral ovals
and polar regions is likely to be mostly normal but with persistent below
normal periods through at least mid-day Friday. 20 meter transpolar
propagation within a few hours of sunrise and sunset is likely to be mostly
normal with persistent below normal periods through at least mid-day
Friday. Long distance 20 meter propagation during daylight hours may be
severely degraded by F1 region and sporadic-E blanketing of propagation via
the F2 region.

17 and 15 meter long distance propagation is likely to be mostly normal but
with persistent below normal periods through at least mid-day Friday. There
is a chance of transatlantic sporadic-E propagation from mid-morning to
mid-afternoon in North America.

12 and 10 meter long distance propagation is likely to be mostly normal but
with persistent below normal periods through at least mid-day Friday. 12
and 10 meter F2 propagation crossing northern hemisphere mid latitudes is
likely to be poor due to seasonally depressed F2 MUFs through late summer.
There is a chance of transatlantic sporadic-E propagation from mid-morning
to mid-afternoon in North America.

Geomagnetic disturbances caused by CME and coronal hole high speed stream
effects are likely to remain mostly brief, minor and somewhat less frequent
through at least mid-2022. Persistent southward orientation (-Bz) of the
north-south component of the interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) plays a
crucial but unpredictable role in triggering all geomagnetic storms. Brief
minor to moderate geomagnetic storms may be gradually triggered when the
IMF persists in a southward orientation (-Bz) with IMF field strength of
about 5 nanoteslas for several hours coincident with the effects of an
Earth directed coronal hole high speed stream. More frequent, longer
duration, minor to severe geomagnetic storms may be triggered suddenly and
unpredictably when the IMF persists in a southward orientation (-Bz) with
IMF field strength significantly stronger than 5 nanoteslas for several
hours or more coincident with the effects of an Earth directed fast CME.
Real time geomagnetic data including Bz orientation and IMF field
strength are available here:
www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/geospace-geomagnetic-activity-plot

Solar wind parameters are likely be moderately enhanced due t coronal hole
high speed stream and multiple CME effects. There is also chance of
moderate radio blackouts and a slight chance of strong radio blackouts due
to coronal hole high speed stream effects.

Minor to strong geomagnetic storms are likely through mid-day Wednesday and
minor to moderate geomagnetic storms are likely to resume from early
through mid-day Friday. Unsettled to active conditions are likely after
mid-day Friday.

Mid-latitude northern hemisphere sunset is 31 minutes earlier and day
length is 81 minutes shorter than it was on June 21st.

Click *here* <https://www.spaceweather.gc.ca/solarflux/sx-4-en.php> for today’s
Penticton 10.7 cm solar flux index updated at 1800Z, 2000Z and 2200Z daily.

Click *here*
<https://spaceweather.gfz-potsdam.de/fileadmin/ruggero/Kp_forecast/forecast_figures/KP_FORECAST_CURRENT.png>
for today’s
three-day GFZ Planetary K Index forecast updated every three hours.

Click *here* <http://sidc.oma.be/products/meu/> for today's SIDC Daily
Bulletin on Solar and Geomagnetic Activity updated at 1230Z daily.

Click *here* <https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/forecast-discussion>
for today's
SWPC Solar Activity Forecast Discussion updated at 0030Z and 1230Z daily.

Click *here* <https://www.sws.bom.gov.au/Space_Weather/1/1> for today's
Australian Space Forecast Centre Summary and Forecast updated at 2330Z
daily.
Perhaps the most useful HF propagation pages for DXers can be found at:
http://dx.qsl.net/propagation and http://www.solarham.net