[RSM] W3LPL: Maybe some below normal through Sunday/21

[Art Boyars]

From: Frank W3LPL <donovanf at starpower.net>
To: PVRC <pvrc at mailman.qth.net>
Cc:
Bcc:
Date: Fri, 19 Aug 2022 01:56:45 -0400 (EDT)
Subject: [PVRC] Propagation is likely to be mostly normal with possible
below normal periods through Sunday

My propagation forecast derived from today's NOAA/SWPC web pages
is published five days a week (M-F) in the Daily DX. All days and times in
this forecast are in UTC (Zulu) time.

Propagation crossing low latitudes is likely to be normal with a chance of
below normal intervals early Saturday.

Propagation crossing mid-latitudes is likely to be mostly normal with a
probable below normal periods early Saturday.

Propagation crossing the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely to be
mostly normal but with persistent below normal periods early Saturday.
There remains a chance of active to minor storm intervals throughout the
forecast period.

Click *here* <https://services.swpc.noaa.gov/images/planetary-k-index.gif>
for today’s
latest planetary Kp Index, updated every three hours.

Click *here* <http://www.hamqsl.com/solar.html> for N0NBH’s current HF Band
Conditions, updated regularly.

Today's solar flux index (SFI) is 117 and is likely to remain unchanged
through Sunday. The sun’s visible disk has five tiny, small and medium
sized active regions containing 33 sunspots with a total area of 410
micro-hemispheres (about two Earth diameters).
https://www.sidc.be/spaceweatherservices/applications/solarmap

160 and 80 meter propagation from North America to VK/ZL and the
south Pacific is likely to be normal with a chance of below normal
intervals early Saturday. 160 and 80 meter propagation to Asia is likely to
be mostly normal but with persistent below normal periods early Saturday.

40 meter short path propagation from North America to south Asia at about
0000Z is likely to be mostly normal but with persistent below normal
periods early Saturday. Short path propagation from North America to east
Asia after about 1000Z is likely to be mostly normal but with persistent
below normal periods early Saturday.

30 meter propagation through the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely
to be mostly normal but with persistent below normal periods early
Saturday. 30 meter propagation is always significantly degraded within a
few hours of local noon because of E-region blanketing of long distance F2
propagation.

20 meter daytime and evening propagation through the auroral ovals
and polar regions is likely to be mostly normal but with persistent below
normal periods early Saturday. 20 meter transpolar propagation within a few
hours of sunrise and sunset is likely to be mostly normal but with
persistent below normal periods early Saturday. Long distance 20 meter
propagation during daylight hours may be severely degraded by F1 region and
sporadic-E blanketing of propagation via the F2 region.

17 and 15 meter long distance propagation is likely to be mostly normal but
with persistent below normal periods early Saturday. There is a chance of
transatlantic sporadic-E propagation from mid-morning to mid-afternoon in
North America.

12 and 10 meter long distance propagation is likely to be mostly normal but
with persistent below normal periods early Saturday. 12 and 10 meter F2
propagation crossing northern hemisphere mid latitudes is likely to be poor
due to seasonally depressed F2 MUFs through late summer. There is a chance
of transatlantic sporadic-E propagation from mid-morning to mid-afternoon
in North America.

Geomagnetic disturbances caused by CME and coronal hole high speed stream
effects are likely to remain mostly brief, minor and somewhat less frequent
through at least mid-2022. Persistent southward orientation (-Bz) of the
north-south component of the interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) plays a
crucial but unpredictable role in triggering all geomagnetic storms. Brief
minor to moderate geomagnetic storms may be gradually triggered when the
IMF persists in a southward orientation (-Bz) with IMF field strength of
about 5 nanoteslas for several hours coincident with the effects of an
Earth directed coronal hole high speed stream. More frequent, longer
duration, minor to severe geomagnetic storms may be triggered suddenly and
unpredictably when the IMF persists in a southward orientation (-Bz) with
IMF field strength significantly stronger than 5 nanoteslas for several
hours or more coincident with the effects of an Earth directed fast CME.
Real time geomagnetic data including Bz orientation and IMF field
strength are available here:
www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/geospace-geomagnetic-activity-plot

Solar wind parameters are likely be moderately enhanced through mid-day
Sunday due to coronal hole high speed stream and multiple CME effects.
There is also chance of moderate radio blackouts and a slight chance of
strong radio blackouts due to coronal hole high speed stream effects due to
likely M-class and a slight chance of X-class solar flares.

Unsettled to active conditions are likely through early Sunday with likely
minor to moderate geomagnetic storms early Saturday. Quiet to unsettled
conditions are likely through late Sunday, but there remains a chance of
active to minor storm intervals throughout the forecast period.

Mid-latitude northern hemisphere sunset is 40 minutes earlier and day
length is 84 minutes shorter than it was on June 21st.

Click *here* <https://www.spaceweather.gc.ca/solarflux/sx-4-en.php> for today’s
Penticton 10.7 cm solar flux index updated at 1800Z, 2000Z and 2200Z daily.

Click *here*
<https://spaceweather.gfz-potsdam.de/fileadmin/ruggero/Kp_forecast/forecast_figures/KP_FORECAST_CURRENT.png>
for today’s
three-day GFZ Planetary K Index forecast updated every three hours.

Click *here* <http://sidc.oma.be/products/meu/> for today's SIDC Daily
Bulletin on Solar and Geomagnetic Activity updated at 1230Z daily.

Click *here* <https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/forecast-discussion>
for today's
SWPC Solar Activity Forecast Discussion updated at 0030Z and 1230Z daily.

Click *here* <https://www.sws.bom.gov.au/Space_Weather/1/1> for today's
Australian Space Forecast Centre Summary and Forecast updated at 2330Z
daily.
Perhaps the most useful HF propagation pages for DXers can be found at:
http://dx.qsl.net/propagation and http://www.solarham.net