[RSM] W3LPL: Maybe some below normal thru Tues/23

[Art Boyars]

(This one sneaked, again, into my gmail "Promotions" folder.)

From: Frank W3LPL <donovanf at starpower.net>
To: PVRC <pvrc at mailman.qth.net>
Cc:
Bcc:
Date: Mon, 22 Aug 2022 00:51:09 -0400 (EDT)
Subject: [PVRC] Propagation is likely to be mostly normal with possible
below normal periods through early Tuesday

My propagation forecast derived from today's NOAA/SWPC web pages
is published five days a week (M-F) in the Daily DX. All days and times in
this forecast are in UTC (Zulu) time.

Propagation crossing low latitudes is likely to be mostly normal.

Propagation crossing mid-latitudes is likely to be mostly normal with a
possible below normal periods through early Tuesday.

Propagation crossing the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely to be
mostly normal with possible below normal periods through early Tuesday.

Click *here* <https://services.swpc.noaa.gov/images/planetary-k-index.gif>
for today’s
latest planetary Kp Index, updated every three hours.

Click *here* <http://www.hamqsl.com/solar.html> for N0NBH’s current HF Band
Conditions, updated regularly.
Today's solar flux index (SFI) is 97 and is likely to remain unchanged
through Tuesday. The sun’s visible disk has four tiny, small and medium
sized active regions containing 16 sunspots with a total area of 160
micro-hemispheres (about the area of Earth’s surface).
https://www.sidc.be/spaceweatherservices/applications/solarmap

160 and 80 meter propagation from North America to VK/ZL and the
south Pacific is likely to be mostly normal. 160 and 80 meter propagation
to Asia is likely to be mostly normal with possible below normal periods
through early Tuesday.

40 meter short path propagation from North America to south Asia at about
0000Z is likely to be mostly normal with possible below normal periods.
Short path propagation from North America to east Asia after about 1000Z is
likely to be mostly normal with possible below normal periods.

30 meter propagation through the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely
to be mostly normal with possible below normal periods through early
Tuesday. 30 meter propagation is always significantly degraded within a few
hours of local noon because of E-region blanketing of long distance F2
propagation.

20 meter daytime and evening propagation through the auroral ovals
and polar regions is likely to be mostly normal with possible below normal
periods through early Tuesday. 20 meter transpolar propagation within a few
hours of sunrise and sunset is likely to be mostly normal with possible
below normal periods through early Tuesday. Long distance 20 meter
propagation during daylight hours may be severely degraded by F1 region and
sporadic-E blanketing of propagation via the F2 region.

17 and 15 meter long distance propagation is likely to be mostly normal
with possible below normal periods through early Tuesday. There is a chance
of transatlantic sporadic-E propagation from mid-morning to mid-afternoon
in North America.

12 and 10 meter long distance propagation is likely to be mostly normal
with possible below normal periods through early Tuesday. 12 and 10 meter
F2 propagation crossing northern hemisphere mid latitudes is likely to
be poor due to seasonally depressed F2 MUFs through late summer. There is a
chance of transatlantic sporadic-E propagation from mid-morning to
mid-afternoon in North America.

Geomagnetic disturbances caused by CME and coronal hole high speed stream
effects are likely to be seasonally more severe and about twice as frequent
through mid-October. Persistent southward orientation (-Bz) of the
north-south component of the interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) plays a
crucial but unpredictable role in triggering all geomagnetic storms. Brief
minor to moderate geomagnetic storms may be gradually triggered when the
IMF persists in a southward orientation (-Bz) with IMF field strength of
about 5 nanoteslas for several hours coincident with the effects of an
Earth directed coronal hole high speed stream. More frequent, longer
duration, minor to severe geomagnetic storms may be triggered suddenly and
unpredictably when the IMF persists in a southward orientation (-Bz) with
IMF field strength significantly stronger than 5 nanoteslas for several
hours or more coincident with the effects of an Earth directed fast CME.
Real time geomagnetic data including Bz orientation and IMF field
strength are available here:
www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/geospace-geomagnetic-activity-plot

Solar wind parameters are likely be moderately enhanced through mid-day
Tuesday due to combined coronal hole high speed stream and CME effects.

Unsettled to active conditions are likely with the possibility of minor
geomagnetic storms through early Tuesday followed by quiet to unsettled
conditions through late Tuesday.

Mid-latitude northern hemisphere sunset is 43 minutes earlier and day
length is 91 minutes shorter than it was on June 21st.

Click *here* <https://www.spaceweather.gc.ca/solarflux/sx-4-en.php> for today’s
Penticton 10.7 cm solar flux index updated at 1800Z, 2000Z and 2200Z daily.

Click *here*
<https://spaceweather.gfz-potsdam.de/fileadmin/ruggero/Kp_forecast/forecast_figures/KP_FORECAST_CURRENT.png>
for today’s
three-day GFZ Planetary K Index forecast updated every three hours.

Click *here* <http://sidc.oma.be/products/meu/> for today's SIDC Daily
Bulletin on Solar and Geomagnetic Activity updated at 1230Z daily.

Click *here* <https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/forecast-discussion>
for today's
SWPC Solar Activity Forecast Discussion updated at 0030Z and 1230Z daily.

Click *here* <https://www.sws.bom.gov.au/Space_Weather/1/1> for today's
Australian Space Forecast Centre Summary and Forecast updated at 2330Z
daily.

Perhaps the most useful HF propagation pages for DXers can be