[RSM] W3LPL: Below norm intervals nighttime thru Wed/31

[Art Boyars]

From: Frank W3LPL <donovanf at starpower.net>
To: PVRC <pvrc at mailman.qth.net>
Cc:
Bcc:
Date: Mon, 29 Aug 2022 23:53:49 -0400 (EDT)
Subject: [PVRC] Propagation is likely to be mostly normal with below normal
intervals during nighttime hours through Wednesday

My propagation forecast derived from today's NOAA/SWPC web pages
is published five days a week (M-F) in the Daily DX. All days and times in
this forecast are in UTC (Zulu) time.

Propagation crossing low and mid-latitudes is likely to be mostly normal.

Propagation crossing the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely to be
mostly normal with below normal intervals during nighttime hours.

Click *here* <https://services.swpc.noaa.gov/images/planetary-k-index.gif>
for today’s
latest planetary Kp Index, updated every three hours.

Click *here* <http://www.hamqsl.com/solar.html> for N0NBH’s current HF Band
Conditions, updated regularly.
Today's solar flux index (SFI) is 131 possibly declining slightly through
Wednesday. The sun’s visible disk has five tiny, small, medium and large
active regions containing 37 sunspots with a total area of 930
micro-hemispheres (about 5.5 times the Earth’s surface area).
https://www.sidc.be/spaceweatherservices/applications/solarmap

160 and 80 meter propagation from North America to VK/ZL and the
south Pacific is likely to be mostly normal. 160 and 80 meter propagation
to Asia is likely to be mostly normal with below normal intervals.

40 meter short path propagation from North America to south Asia at about
0000Z is likely to be mostly normal with below normal intervals. Short path
propagation from North America to east Asia after about 0930Z is likely to
be mostly normal with below normal intervals.

30 meter propagation through the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely
to be mostly normal with below normal intervals. 30 meter propagation is
always significantly degraded within a few hours of local noon because of
E-region blanketing of long distance F2 propagation.

20 meter daytime and evening propagation through the auroral ovals
and polar regions is likely to be mostly normal with below normal intervals
during nighttime hours. 20 meter transpolar propagation within a few hours
of sunrise and sunset is likely to be mostly normal with below normal
intervals during late nighttime hours. Long distance 20 meter propagation
during daylight hours may be severely degraded by F1 region blanketing
of propagation via the F2 region.

17 and 15 meter long distance propagation is likely to be mostly normal
with below normal intervals during nighttime hours. There is a chance of
transatlantic sporadic-E propagation from mid-morning to mid-afternoon in
North America.

12 and 10 meter long distance propagation is likely to be mostly normal
with possible below normal intervals. 12 and 10 meter F2 propagation
crossing northern hemisphere mid- latitudes is likely to be poor due to
seasonally depressed F2 MUFs through late summer. There is a chance of
transatlantic sporadic-E propagation from mid-morning to mid-afternoon in
North America.

Geomagnetic disturbances caused by CME and coronal hole high speed stream
effects are likely to be seasonally more severe and about twice as frequent
through mid-October. Persistent southward orientation (-Bz) of the
north-south component of the interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) plays a
crucial but unpredictable role in triggering all geomagnetic storms. Brief
minor to moderate geomagnetic storms may be gradually triggered when the
IMF persists in a southward orientation (-Bz) with IMF field strength of
about 5 nanoteslas for several hours coincident with the effects of an
Earth directed coronal hole high speed stream. More frequent, longer
duration, minor to severe geomagnetic storms may be triggered suddenly and
unpredictably when the IMF persists in a southward orientation (-Bz) with
IMF field strength significantly stronger than 5 nanoteslas for several
hours or more coincident with the effects of an Earth directed fast CME.
Real time geomagnetic data including Bz orientation and IMF field
strength are available here:
www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/geospace-geomagnetic-activity-plot

Solar wind parameters are likely to be moderately enhanced through
Wednesday due to coronal hole high speed stream and glancing CME effects.
Minor to moderate radio blackouts are likely through Wednesday on paths
crossing the daylight side of the Earth due to likely M-class solar flares.
There is a slight chance of strong radio blackouts on paths crossing the
daylight side of the Earth due to a slight chance of X-class solar flares
especially during Tuesday.

Mostly unsettled to active conditions are likely through Wednesday with a
chance of minor storm conditions mostly during Tuesday due to coronal hole
high speed stream and glancing CME effects.

Mid-latitude northern hemisphere sunset is 55 minutes earlier and day
length is 108 minutes shorter than it was on June 21st.

Click *here* <https://www.spaceweather.gc.ca/solarflux/sx-4-en.php> for today’s
Penticton 10.7 cm solar flux index updated at 1700Z, 2000Z and 2200Z daily.

Click *here*
<https://spaceweather.gfz-potsdam.de/fileadmin/ruggero/Kp_forecast/forecast_figures/KP_FORECAST_CURRENT.png>
for today’s
three-day GFZ Planetary K Index forecast updated every three hours.

Click *here* <http://sidc.oma.be/products/meu/> for today's SIDC Daily
Bulletin on Solar and Geomagnetic Activity updated at 1230Z daily.

Click *here* <https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/forecast-discussion>
for today's
SWPC Solar Activity Forecast Discussion updated at 0030Z and 1230Z daily.

Click *here* <https://www.sws.bom.gov.au/Space_Weather/1/1> for today's
Australian Space Forecast Centre Summary and Forecast updated at 2330Z daily

Perhaps the most useful HF propagation pages for DXers can be found at:
http://dx.qsl.net/propagation and http://www.solarham.net