[RSM] W3LPL: Maybe some below normal at night thru Thursday

[Art Boyars]

From: Frank Donovan <donovanf at starpower.net>
To: PVRC <pvrc at mailman.qth.net>
Cc:
Bcc:
Date: Wed, 31 Aug 2022 00:53:07 -0400 (EDT)
Subject: [PVRC] Propagation is likely to be mostly normal with possible
below normal intervals during nighttime hours through Thursday

My propagation forecast derived from today's NOAA/SWPC web pages
is published five days a week (M-F) in the Daily DX. All days and times in
this forecast are in UTC (Zulu) time.

Propagation crossing the low and mid-latitudes, the auroral ovals and polar
regions is likely to be mostly normal with possible below normal intervals
during nighttime hours.

Click https://services.swpc.noaa.gov/images/planetary-k-index.gif for today's
latest estimated planetary Kp Index, updated every three hours.

Click http://www.hamqsl.com/solar.html for N0NBH's current HF
Band Conditions, updated regularly.

Today's solar flux index (SFI) is 126 possibly declining to about 110 by
Thursday. The sun’s visible disk has one tiny and one medium sized active
region containing 30 sunspots with a total area of 280 micro-hemispheres
(about 1.5 times the Earth’s surface area).
https://www.sidc.be/spaceweatherservices/applications/solarmap

160 and 80 meter propagation from North America to VK/ZL and the
south Pacific is likely to be mostly normal. 160 and 80 meter propagation
to Asia is likely to be mostly normal with possible below normal intervals.

40 meter short path propagation from North America to south Asia at about
0000Z is likely to be mostly normal with possible below normal intervals.
Short path propagation from North America to east Asia after about 0930Z is
likely to be mostly normal with possible below normal intervals.

30 meter propagation through the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely
to be mostly normal with possible below normal intervals. 30 meter
propagation is always significantly degraded within a few hours of local
noon because of E-region blanketing of long distance F2 propagation.

20 meter daytime and evening propagation through the auroral ovals
and polar regions is likely to be mostly normal with possible below normal
intervals during nighttime hours. 20 meter transpolar propagation within a
few hours of sunrise and sunset is likely to be mostly normal with possible
below normal intervals during nighttime hours. Long distance 20 meter
propagation during daylight hours may be severely degraded by F1 region
blanketing of propagation via the F2 region.

17 and 15 meter long distance propagation is likely to be mostly normal
with possible below normal intervals during nighttime hours. There is a
chance of transatlantic sporadic-E propagation from mid-morning to
mid-afternoon in North America.

12 and 10 meter long distance propagation is likely to be mostly normal
with possible below normal intervals. 12 and 10 meter F2 propagation
crossing northern hemisphere mid- latitudes is likely to be poor due to
seasonally depressed F2 MUFs through late summer. There is a slight chance
of transatlantic sporadic-E propagation from mid-morning to mid-afternoon
in North America.

Geomagnetic disturbances caused by CME and coronal hole high speed stream
effects are likely to be seasonally more severe and about twice as frequent
through mid-October. Persistent southward orientation (-Bz) of the
north-south component of the interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) plays a
crucial but unpredictable role in triggering all geomagnetic storms. Brief
minor to moderate geomagnetic storms may be gradually triggered when the
IMF persists in a southward orientation (-Bz) with IMF field strength of
about 5 nanoteslas for several hours coincident with the effects of an
Earth directed coronal hole high speed stream. More frequent, longer
duration, minor to severe geomagnetic storms may be triggered suddenly and
unpredictably when the IMF persists in a southward orientation (-Bz) with
IMF field strength significantly stronger than 5 nanoteslas for several
hours or more coincident with the effects of an Earth directed fast CME.
Real time geomagnetic data including Bz orientation and IMF field
strength are available here:
www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/geospace-geomagnetic-activity-plot

Solar wind parameters are likely to be moderately enhanced during Wednesday
due to coronal hole high speed stream and glancing CME effects and mostly
ambient during Thursday. Minor to moderate radio blackouts are possible
through Thursday on paths crossing the daylight side of the Earth due to
likely M-class solar flares.

Mostly quiet to unsettled conditions are likely through Thursday with a
chance of active conditions during Wednesday due to coronal hole high speed
stream and glancing CME effects.

Mid-latitude northern hemisphere sunset is 58 minutes earlier and day
length is 111 minutes shorter than it was on June 21st.

Click
https://www.spaceweather.gc.ca/forecast-prevision/solar-solaire/solarflux/sx-5-flux-en.php
for the Penticton 10.7 cm solar flux index.

Click
https://spaceweather.gfz-potsdam.de/fileadmin/ruggero/Kp_forecast/forecast_figures/KP_FORECAST_CURRENT.png

for today's three-day GFZ Planetary K Index forecast updated every three
hours.

Click
https://wwwbis.sidc.be/spaceweatherservices/data/ClassicalRWCproducts/meu/
for today's SIDC Daily Bulletin on Solar and Geomagnetic Activity updated
at 1230Z daily.

Click https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/forecast-discussion for today's
SWPC Solar Activity Forecast Discussion updated at 0030Z and 1230Z daily.

Click https://www.sws.bom.gov.au/Space_Weather/1/1 for today's Australian
Space Forecast Centre Summary and Forecast updated at 2330Z daily

Perhaps the most useful HF propagation pages for DXers can be found at:
http://dx.qsl.net/propagation and http://www.solarham.net