[RSM] W3LPL: Some nighttime degradation thru Friday

[Art Boyars]

From: Frank W3LPL <donovanf at starpower.net>
To: PVRC <pvrc at mailman.qth.net>
Cc:
Bcc:
Date: Thu, 1 Dec 2022 02:31:30 -0500 (EST)
Subject: [PVRC] Propagation crossing mid and high latitudes is likely to be
mildly degraded during local night time hours through Friday

My propagation forecast derived from today's NOAA/SWPC web pages
is published five days a week (M-F) in the Daily DX. All days and times in
this forecast are in UTC (Zulu) time.

Propagation crossing low latitudes is likely to be normal through Friday.

Propagation crossing mid-latitudes is likely to be mostly normal but mildly
degraded during local night time hours through Friday.

Propagation crossing the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely to be
mostly normal but mildly to moderately degraded during local night time
hours through Friday.

Click *here* <https://services.swpc.noaa.gov/images/planetary-k-index.gif>
for today’s
latest planetary Kp Index, updated every three hours.

Click *here* <http://www.hamqsl.com/solar.html> for N0NBH’s current HF Band
Conditions, updated regularly

Today's solar flux index (SFI) is 111 and likely to remain about the same
through Friday. The sun’s visible disk is nearly blank with only one tiny
active region containing two tiny sunspots with a total area of ten
micro-hemispheres (only about five percent of the surface area of the
Earth).
https://www.sidc.be/spaceweatherservices/applications/solarmap

160 and 80 meter propagation from North America to VK/ZL and the
south Pacific is likely to be normal through Friday.

40 meter short path propagation from North America to south Asia at about
0000Z is likely to be mildly to moderately degraded through Friday. Short
path propagation from North America to east Asia after about 0800Z is
likely to be mildly to moderately degraded through Friday. 40 meter long
path propagation from North America to south Asia after about 2130Z is
likely to be mildly to moderately degraded through Friday.

30 meter propagation through the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely
to be mildly to moderately degraded during local night time hours through
Friday. 30 meter propagation is always significantly degraded within a few
hours of local noon because of E-region blanketing of long distance F2
propagation.

20 meter daytime and evening propagation through the auroral ovals
and polar regions is likely to be mildly to moderately degraded though
Friday. 20 meter transpolar propagation within a few hours of sunrise and
sunset is likely to be mildly to moderately degraded through Friday.

17 and 15 meter long distance propagation is likely to be mostly normal but
mildly to moderately degraded during local night time hours through Friday.

12 and 10 meter long distance propagation is likely to be mostly normal but
mildly to moderately degraded during local night time hours through Friday.
12 and 10 meter long path propagation may occur sporadically through late
November. 12 and 10 meter F2 propagation crossing northern hemisphere
mid-latitudes is likely to be enhanced during periods of elevated solar
ionizing radiation solar flux index above about 120) and quiet to unsettled
geomagnetic activity (K index of 3 or less) through mid-December.

Very long distance 6 meter trans-pacific oblique trans-equatorial
propagation (TEP) is likely to occur occasionally through early January
from the southern tier of U.S. states during mid-afternoon at the path
mid-point (evening hours in the eastern U.S.). More northerly U.S.
locations will less frequently couple into trans-pacific oblique TEP via
sporadic-E paths to W5 and XE. See K6MIO’s excellent article beginning on
page 66 at:
https://k5tra.net/TechFiles/2014%20Central%20States%20whole%20book.pdf

Persistent southward orientation (-Bz) of the north-south component of the
interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) plays a crucial but unpredictable role
in triggering all geomagnetic storms. Brief minor to moderate
geomagnetic storms may be gradually triggered when the IMF persists in a
southward orientation (-Bz) with IMF field strength of about 5 nanoteslas
for several hours coincident with the effects of an Earth directed
coronal hole high speed stream. More frequent, longer duration, minor
to severe geomagnetic storms may be triggered suddenly and
unpredictably when the IMF persists in a southward orientation (-Bz) with
IMF field strength significantly stronger than 5 nanoteslas for several
hours or more coincident with the effects of an Earth directed fast CME
(faster than 1000 km per second). Real time geomagnetic data including Bz
orientation, IMF field strength, solar wind speed and short term K Index
forecast are available here:
www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/geospace-geomagnetic-activity-plot

Radio blackouts caused by unpredictable sudden bursts of X-ray radiation
from M-class solar flares are unlikely through Friday.

The solar wind is likely to be moderately to strongly enhanced through
Friday due to coronal hole high speed stream effects.

Geomagnetic activity is likely to be mostly active with a possible minor
geomagnetic storm late Wednesday and unsettled to active with a chance of
an isolated minor geomagnetic storm on Friday due to coronal hole high
speed stream effects. We are entering the winter solstice season when
disturbed geomagnetic conditions occur about half as often as during spring
and fall.

Mid-latitude northern hemisphere sunset is 79 minutes earlier and day
length is 150 minutes shorter than it was on September 22nd.

Click *here* <https://www.spaceweather.gc.ca/solarflux/sx-4-en.php> for today’s
Penticton 10.7 cm solar flux index updated at 1700Z, 2000Z and 2200Z daily.

Click *here*
<https://spaceweather.gfz-potsdam.de/fileadmin/ruggero/Kp_forecast/forecast_figures/KP_FORECAST_CURRENT.png>
for today’s
three-day GFZ Planetary K Index forecast updated every three hours.

Click *here* <http://sidc.oma.be/products/meu/> for today's SIDC Daily
Bulletin on Solar and Geomagnetic Activity updated at 1230Z daily.

Click *here* <https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/forecast-discussion>
for today's
SWPC Solar Activity Forecast Discussion updated at 0030Z and 1230Z daily.

Click *here* <https://www.sws.bom.gov.au/Space_Weather/1/1> for today's
Australian Space Forecast Centre Summary and Forecast updated at 2330Z
daily.
Perhaps the most useful HF propagation pages for DXers can be found at:
http://dx.qsl.net/propagation and http://www.solarham.net