[RSM] W3LPL propagation forecast 2022 12 02

[Art Boyars]

Have fun in the ARRL 160M Contest this weekend.  K3KU hopes to be QRV
Saturday night.

From: Frank W3LPL <donovanf at starpower.net>
To: PVRC <pvrc at mailman.qth.net>
Cc:
Bcc:
Date: Fri, 2 Dec 2022 00:51:23 -0500 (EST)
Subject: [PVRC] Propagation crossing mid and high latitudes is likely to be
mildly degraded during local night time hours through Friday night then
mostly normal through Sunday

My propagation forecast derived from today's NOAA/SWPC web pages
is published five days a week (M-F) in the Daily DX. All days and times in
this forecast are in UTC (Zulu) time.

Propagation crossing low latitudes is likely to be normal through Sunday.

Propagation crossing mid-latitudes is likely to be mildly degraded during
local night time hours Friday night, then mostly normal through Sunday.

Propagation crossing the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely to be
mildly to moderately degraded during local night time hours Friday night,
then mostly normal through Sunday.

Click *here* <https://services.swpc.noaa.gov/images/planetary-k-index.gif>
for today’s
latest planetary Kp Index, updated every three hours.

Click *here* <http://www.hamqsl.com/solar.html> for N0NBH’s current HF Band
Conditions, updated regularly

Today's solar flux index (SFI) is 119 and is likely to rise to about 130 on
Sunday. The sun’s visible disk is has one large and three tiny active
regions containing ten sunspots with a total area of 330 micro-hemispheres
(about twice the surface area of the Earth).
https://www.sidc.be/spaceweatherservices/applications/solarmap

160 and 80 meter propagation from North America to VK/ZL and
the south Pacific is likely to be normal through Sunday.

40 meter short path propagation from North America to south Asia at about
0000Z is likely to be mildly degraded during local night time hours Friday
night, then mostly normal through Sunday. Short path propagation from
North America to east Asia after about 0800Z is likely to be mostly normal
through Sunday. 40 meter long path propagation from North America to south
Asia after about 2130Z is likely to be mildly degraded during local night
time hours Friday night, then mostly normal through Sunday.

30 meter propagation through the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely
to be mildly to moderately degraded during local night time hours Friday
night then mostly normal through Sunday. 30 meter propagation is
always significantly degraded within a few hours of local noon because of
E-region blanketing of long distance F2 propagation.

20 meter daytime and evening propagation through the auroral ovals
and polar regions is likely to be mildly to moderately degraded during
local night time hours Friday night, then mostly normal through Sunday. 20
meter transpolar propagation within a few hours of sunrise and sunset is
likely to be mildly to moderately degraded during local night time hours
Friday night then mostly normal through Sunday.

17 and 15 meter long distance propagation is likely to be mildly
to moderately degraded during local night time hours Friday night
then mostly normal through Sunday.

12 and 10 meter long distance propagation is likely to be mildly
to moderately degraded during local night time hours Friday night then
mostly normal through Sunday. 12 and 10 meter F2 propagation crossing
northern hemisphere mid-latitudes is likely to be enhanced during periods
of elevated solar ionizing radiation (solar flux index above about 120) and
quiet to unsettled geomagnetic activity (K index of 3 or less) through
mid-December.

Very long distance 6 meter trans-pacific oblique trans-equatorial
propagation (TEP) is likely to occur occasionally through early January
from the southern tier of U.S. states during mid-afternoon at the path
mid-point (evening hours in the eastern U.S.). More northerly U.S.
locations will less frequently couple into trans-pacific oblique TEP via
sporadic-E paths to W5 and XE. See K6MIO’s excellent article beginning on
page 66 at:
https://k5tra.net/TechFiles/2014%20Central%20States%20whole%20book.pdf

Persistent southward orientation (-Bz) of the north-south component of the
interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) plays a crucial but unpredictable role
in triggering all geomagnetic storms. Brief minor to moderate
geomagnetic storms may be gradually triggered when the IMF persists in a
southward orientation (-Bz) with IMF field strength of about 5 nanoteslas
for several hours coincident with the effects of an Earth directed
coronal hole high speed stream. More frequent, longer duration, minor
to severe geomagnetic storms may be triggered suddenly and
unpredictably when the IMF persists in a southward orientation (-Bz) with
IMF field strength significantly stronger than 5 nanoteslas for several
hours or more coincident with the effects of an Earth directed fast CME
(faster than 1000 km per second). Real time geomagnetic data including Bz
orientation, IMF field strength, solar wind speed and short term K Index
forecast are available here:
www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/geospace-geomagnetic-activity-plot

There is a slight chance of brief daytime radio blackouts caused by
unpredictable sudden bursts of X-ray radiation from M-class solar flares
through Sunday.

The solar wind is likely to be moderately to strongly enhanced through late
Friday due to coronal hole high speed stream effects, then mildly elevated
through Sunday.

Geomagnetic activity is likely to be unsettled to active through mid-day
Saturday with the possibility of an isolated minor geomagnetic storm late
Friday. Quiet to unsettled geomagnetic conditions are then likely through
early Sunday followed by unsettled to active geomagnetic conditions through
late Sunday.  We are entering the winter solstice season when disturbed
geomagnetic conditions occur about half as often as during spring and fall.

Mid-latitude northern hemisphere sunset is 79 minutes earlier and day
length is 153 minutes shorter than it was on September 22nd.

Click *here* <https://www.spaceweather.gc.ca/solarflux/sx-4-en.php> for today’s
Penticton 10.7 cm solar flux index updated at 1700Z, 2000Z and 2200Z daily.

Click *here*
<https://spaceweather.gfz-potsdam.de/fileadmin/ruggero/Kp_forecast/forecast_figures/KP_FORECAST_CURRENT.png>
for today’s
three-day GFZ Planetary K Index forecast updated every three hours.

Click *here* <http://sidc.oma.be/products/meu/> for today's SIDC Daily
Bulletin on Solar and Geomagnetic Activity updated at 1230Z daily.

Click *here* <https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/forecast-discussion>
for today's
SWPC Solar Activity Forecast Discussion updated at 0030Z and 1230Z daily.

Click *here* <https://www.sws.bom.gov.au/Space_Weather/1/1> for today's
Australian Space Forecast Centre Summary and Forecast updated at 2330Z
daily.
Perhaps the most useful HF propagation pages for DXers can be found at:
http://dx.qsl.net/propagation and http://www.solarham.net