[RSM] W3LPL: Likely above normal thru Thursday

[Art Boyars]

From: Frank W3LPL <donovanf at starpower.net>
To: PVRC <pvrc at mailman.qth.net>
Cc:
Bcc:
Date: Wed, 14 Dec 2022 00:48:51 -0500 (EST)
Subject: [PVRC] Propagation is likely to be above normal through Thursday

My propagation forecast derived from today's NOAA/SWPC web pages
is published five days a week (M-F) in the Daily DX. All days and times in
this forecast are in UTC (Zulu) time.

Propagation crossing low and mid-latitudes, the auroral ovals and polar
regions is likely to be above normal through Thursday.

Click *here* <https://services.swpc.noaa.gov/images/station-k-index.png>
for today’s
latest planetary Kp Index, updated every three hours.

Click *here* <http://www.hamqsl.com/solar.html> for N0NBH’s current HF Band
Conditions, updated regularly.

Today's solar flux index (SFI) is 153 and is likely to remain about the
same through Thursday. The sun’s visible disk has one large, six medium and
three tiny active regions containing 59 sunspots with a total sunspot area
of 1410 micro-hemispheres (about seven times the surface area of the Earth).
https://www.sidc.be/spaceweatherservices/applications/solarmap

160 and 80 meter propagation from North America to VK/ZL and
the south Pacific is likely to be normal through Thursday.

40 meter short path propagation from North America to south Asia at about
0000Z is likely to be above normal through Thursday. Short path propagation
from North America to east Asia after about 0800Z is likely to be above
normal through Thursday. 40 meter long path propagation from North America
to east Asia after about 2130Z is likely to be above normal through
Thursday.

30 meter propagation through the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely
to be above normal through Thursday. 30 meter long path propagation from
North America to east Asia after about 2130Z likely to be above normal
through Thursday. 30 meter propagation is always significantly degraded
within a few hours of local noon because of E-region blanketing of long
distance F2 propagation.

20 meter daytime and evening propagation through the auroral ovals
and polar regions is likely to be above normal through Thursday. 20
meter transpolar propagation within a few hours of sunrise and sunset is
likely to be above normal through Thursday.

17 and 15 meter long distance propagation is likely to be above normal
through Thursday.

12 and 10 meter long distance propagation is likely to be above normal
through Thursday. 12 and 10 meter long path propagation from North America
to east Asia from about 1200Z to 1400Z is likely to be above normal through
Thursday. 12 and 10 meter F2 propagation crossing northern hemisphere
mid-latitudes is likely to be enhanced when the solar flux index is about
120 or above and geomagnetic activity is quiet to unsettled (K index of 3
or less) through mid-December.

Very long distance 6 meter oblique trans-equatorial propagation (TEP) from
North America mostly to CQ Zone 32 is likely to occur occasionally through
early January from the southern tier of U.S. states during mid-afternoon at
the path mid-point (evening hours in the eastern U.S.). More northerly U.S.
locations will less frequently couple into trans-pacific oblique TEP via
sporadic-E paths to W5 and XE. See K6MIO’s excellent article beginning on
page 66 at:
https://k5tra.net/TechFiles/2014%20Central%20States%20whole%20book.pdf
Persistent southward orientation (-Bz) of the north-south component of the
interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) plays a crucial but unpredictable role
in triggering all geomagnetic storms. Brief minor to moderate
geomagnetic storms may be gradually triggered when the IMF persists in a
southward orientation (-Bz) with IMF field strength of about 5 nanoteslas
for several hours coincident with the effects of an Earth directed
coronal hole high speed stream. More frequent, longer duration, minor
to severe geomagnetic storms may be triggered suddenly and
unpredictably when the IMF persists in a southward orientation (-Bz) with
IMF field strength significantly stronger than 5 nanoteslas for several
hours or more coincident with the effects of an Earth directed fast CME
(faster than 1000 km per second). Real time geomagnetic data including Bz
orientation, IMF field strength, solar wind speed and short term K Index
forecast are available here:
www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/geospace-geomagnetic-activity-plot

There is a slight chance of minor to moderate daytime radio blackouts
caused by unpredictable sudden bursts of X-ray radiation from M-class solar
flares through Thursday due to the large number of active regions on the
visible disk.

Solar wind speed is likely to be at background levels through Thursday due
to waning coronal hole high speed stream effects.

Geomagnetic activity is likely to be mostly quiet with a slight chance of
active geomagnetic conditions through Thursday due to waning coronal hole
high speed stream effects. We are in the winter solstice season when
disturbed geomagnetic conditions occur about half as often as during the
spring and fall equinox seasons.

Mid-latitude northern hemisphere sunset is 79 minutes earlier and day
length is 161 minutes shorter than it was on September 22nd.

Click *here* <https://www.spaceweather.gc.ca/solarflux/sx-4-en.php> for today’s
Penticton 10.7 cm solar flux index updated at 1800Z, 2000Z and 2200Z daily.

Click *here*
<https://spaceweather.gfz-potsdam.de/fileadmin/ruggero/Kp_forecast/forecast_figures/KP_FORECAST_CURRENT.png>
for today’s
three-day GFZ Planetary K Index forecast updated every three hours.

Click *here* <http://sidc.oma.be/products/meu/> for today's SIDC Daily
Bulletin on Solar and Geomagnetic Activity updated at 1230Z daily.

Click *here* <https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/forecast-discussion>
for today's
SWPC Solar Activity Forecast Discussion updated at 0030Z and 1230Z daily.

Click *here* <https://www.sws.bom.gov.au/Space_Weather/1/1> for today's
Australian Space Forecast Centre Summary and Forecast updated at 2330Z
daily.
Perhaps the most useful HF propagation pages for DXers can be found at:
http://dx.qsl.net/propagation and http://www.solarham.net